ABSTRACT: In the last week of trading, gold climbed to a new all-time high. Although there was a clear setback on Friday, in the medium term there are many indications that prices will continue to rise in the coming weeks. The precious metal must first try to establish itself above the SMA20 at the end of the day. Another requirement would be that the precious metal then has to move upwards quickly. Only when these two conditions are met would prices above 2,100 US dollars be conceivable.
Current gold analysis on May 7th, 2023: Chart analysis, weekly outlook, trading setups and more – for active day traders
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Gold Review: (05/01/2023 – 05/06/2023)
Gold was trading at $1,979.8 on Monday morning. The precious metal was $1.30 above Monday morning last week’s level but $9.20 below Friday night’s weekly close. Gold generally ran sideways on Monday, already formatting the weekly low in the morning. It went up in impulse moves on both Tuesday and Wednesday. The precious metal was able to maintain the level in each case. After a setback on Thursday morning, gold was able to initially recover but then gave way on Friday with momentum and momentum. It went to just under $2,000 during the pullback. The precious metal was able to recover a bit in the evening and went down 2,017.7 U.S. dollar from the weekly trade.
The weekly high is a good 50 US dollars above the level of the previous week, the weekly low is also above the level of the last week, but only just. However, another weekly profit could be reported, the ninth this year. The range was significantly larger than five trading days earlier and was also significantly above the annual average.
On the upside, on the upside of $2,019.7, we expected gold to start our maximum approach target of $2,021.7. This movement has set in, the maximum start-up target has been reached and clearly exceeded, the setup didn’t fit. The pullbacks did not go below $1,978.4 to our next target on the downside at $1,975.8.
Gold – How could it go on:
gold resistors
- 2,029.6
- 2,031.8
- 2,038.4
- 2,059.8
- 2,097.1
- 2,105.8
Gold supports
- 2,005.6
- 2,004.9
- 2,004.6
- 1,993.4
- 1,957.1
- 1,932.1
The most important brands based on our gold setup:
- Intraday mark 2,041 and 1,958
- End of day marks 2,078 and 1,979
- Break1 Bull (Wo-Close) (1,916)
- Break2 Bull (Mon-Closed) (2,041)
- Cyclic movements 2020 – 2033
- Boxing range 2,484 to 1,087
- Ranges 4,497 to 21,378
Gold chart check – viewing in the daily / 4h chart:
DAILY
The daily chart shows that gold has continued to move in the orbit of the SMA20 (currently at $2,004.6) in the last few weeks of trading. Only in this trading week did buying pressure come up again. It led the precious metal well above this line again, with the pullback going back to the SMA20 on Friday, but the weekly close was still formatted above the SMA20.
This means that little has changed in our assessment of the interpretation of the daily chart. The precious metal must first try to establish itself above the SMA20 at the end of the day. Another requirement would be that the precious metal then has to move upwards quickly. Only when these two conditions are met would quotations above 2,100 US dollars be conceivable and conceivable.
However, if gold reestablishes itself below the SMA20, the daily chart would cloud over again. It is conceivable that further weakness could occur, which could go into the SMA50 area (currently at $1,957.1).
- Classification of higher-level chart image, forecast (daily chart): neutral / bullish
Consideration in the 4h chart:
Gold was initially able to push its way from the SMA200 (currently at $1,993.4) after a few attempts above both the SMA20 (currently at $2,029.6) and the SMA50 (currently at $2,005.6). and subsequently establish it. At the close of the week, it went back below the SMA20 with momentum. Friday’s pullback was able to stabilize and recover in the SMA50 area.
As a result, the chart picture has clouded over somewhat. As long as gold is trading above the SMA50, the SMA20 could start again. Gold would only have perspective on the 2,075/80 US dollars again if it can establish itself above the SMA20.
If the SMA50 is given up as support, the SMA200 could still provide support. In April, this line provided good support on the pullbacks. However, if the precious metal establishes itself below the SMA200, this could be an indication that levies could expand significantly.
- Classification short-term chart image, forecast (4 hours): neutral
Conclusion: Gold needs to close above the 20-day moving average if it wants to have any prospects of $2,100. However, if the precious metal establishes itself below the 20-day line, there could be larger losses, which in case of doubt can also have a dynamic character and could run up to the area of the 50-day line
- Probability bull scenario based on our setup: 55%
- Probability of a bear scenario based on our setup: 45%
Gold framework conditions:
At its last meeting, the ECB adjusted interest rates again, just like the Fed did the day before. Interest rates have thus reached a 16-year high. The European Central Bank made it clear at the press conference that it is now concerned about the high wage settlements. These could fuel inflation further. But it is exactly the mechanics that we discussed months ago. The high price increase will mean that wages will rise and this could end in a classic wage-price spiral. The ECB is partly responsible for this development, since it initially defined the rising prices as temporary. Energy prices have fallen noticeably in recent months, leading to an overall slowdown in inflation. What remains stubborn is core inflation.
US jobs data for April came out robust. The US unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, the lowest it has been in decades. So that US job market so far, due to the interest rate hikes by the FED, has not lost momentum. In the medium and long term, however, the high demand for labor could mean that wages could continue to rise, which in turn could lead to inflation rising again in the medium term.
Gold – assessment for the new trading week:
Long Setups: Gold may initially attempt to hold above $2,017.0. If successful, it could continue higher towards our next targets at 2018.0, at 2019.7, at 2021.7, at 2023.7, at 2025.6, at 2027.4, at 2029.6, at 2031 .8 and then go to $2,033.2. Above $2033.2 our next targets would be at 2035.2, at 2038.4, at 2040.1, at 2043.3, at 2045.7, at 2047.7, at 2049.4, at 2051, 0, at $2053.4, at $2055.7, at $2057.9, at $2059.8, at $2061.1, and then at $2063.9.
Short setup: If gold cannot hold above $2017.0, the precious metal could initially approach our next targets at 2015.5, at 2013.4, at 2011.1, at 2009.7, at 2007.7 $2,005.6, $2,004.7, and $2,002.1 respectively. Below $2002.1, gold could be our next targets at 2000.3, at 1999.4, at 1997.0, at 1995.3, at 1993.4, at 1991.1, at 1989.5, at 1987 .4, at $1,985.9, at $1,983.4, at $1,981.0, at $1,979.1, and then at $1,976.4.
Overarching expected trend in week 19 / 2023:
ACTION at the TESTSIEGER 2023:
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