ABSTRACT: The upward momentum has clearly come to a standstill in the last few trading days. The chart clearly shows that gold has repeatedly managed to format a daily close above the SMA20 in the last few trading days. On Friday, however, this line was then abandoned. The daily chart has clouded over!
Current gold analysis on April 23, 2023: Chart analysis, weekly outlook, trading setups and more – for active day traders
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Gold Review: (04/17/2023 – 04/21/2023)
The commodity gold was trading at $2,011.1 on Monday morning. The precious metal was up $16.80 from Monday morning last week and $5.80 from Friday night’s weekly close. Gold initially fell on Monday, stabilizing in the $1,980 area and then recovering. That rebound approached $2,011 by Tuesday night. After a sideways movement in early trading, the precious metal fell dynamically and with momentum on Wednesday. Stabilization and a subsequent recovery only succeeded at just below the $1,970 mark, which went back to $2,015 by Thursday afternoon. Large parts of the winnings were given back on Friday. The precious metal went to 1,982.1 U.S. dollar from the weekly trade.
The weekly high is below the level of the previous week, the same applies to the weekly low. The weekly close was also formatted well below the previous week’s level and below the $2,000 mark. Another weekly loss was reported, the ninth this year. This is offset by seven winning weeks. The range was slightly smaller than in the previous week and was also below the annual average.
On the upside, on the upside of $2012.6, we expected gold to start our next target at $2014.9. This movement has set in, the start-up target has been reached and slightly exceeded, the setup it fit almost perfectly. The pullbacks went minimally below our next target on the downside at $1,969.2, falling below $1,970.8.
Gold – How could it go on:
gold resistors
- 1,984.8
- 1,988.3
- 1,994.5
- 2,006.3
- 2,006.7
- 2,025.4
- 2,048.7
Gold supports
- 1,958.8
- 1,922.3
- 1,917.9
- 1,800.8
The most important brands based on our gold setup:
- Intraday mark 2,023 and 1,958
- End of day marks 2,041 and 1,871
- Break1 Bull (Wo-Close) (1,916)
- Break2 Bull (Mon-Closed) (2,041)
- Cyclic movements 2020 – 2033
- Boxing range 2,484 to 1,087
- Ranges 4,497 to 21,378
Gold chart check – viewing in the daily / 4h chart:
DAILY
The daily chart shows that gold initially recovered significantly. However, the upward momentum has clearly come to a standstill in the last few trading days. The chart clearly shows that gold has repeatedly managed to format a daily close above the SMA20 (currently at $1,994.4) in the last few trading days. This line was then abandoned on Friday.
As a result, the daily chart has clouded over. Gold must prevent Friday’s daily close from being confirmed at the start of the week. If this succeeds and the precious metal can push itself back above the SMA20 at the end of the day and subsequently establish itself, the upward movement could be resumed. Conceivable start-up targets could be the annual high and then $2,100.
However, if Friday’s daily close is confirmed at the start of the week, it could be an indication that further weakness could be on the way. Further pullbacks would then have the potential to run into the SMA50 area (currently at $1,922.3).
- Classification of higher-level chart image, forecast (daily chart): bullish / neutral
Consideration in the 4h chart:
Gold was initially able to push above the SMA20 (currently at $1,994.5) and then the SMA50 (currently at $2,006.7) started. This line had been a cap as trading continued. This can be clearly seen in the chart. At the end of the week, the SMA50 went back below the SMA20.
With the move, the 4-hour chart has clouded over again. As long as the precious metal is trading below the SMA20, it is conceivable and possible that further pullbacks could occur, which could go as far as the SMA200 (currently at $1,958.8).
If there are any recoveries, they could go as far as the SMA20. However, the chart picture would only brighten bullishly when gold has established itself above the SMA50.
- Classification short-term chart image, forecast (4 hours): neutral
Conclusion: Gold must prevent Friday close from being confirmed at week start. If this succeeds and it goes back above the 20-day line at the end of the day, the upward movement could be resumed. If this fails, however, this could be an indication that further weakness could develop.
- Probability bull scenario based on our setup: 55%
- Probability of a bear scenario based on our setup: 45%
Gold framework conditions:
In a few days US GDP for Q1 2023 (1st release) will be announced. Analysts assume that the US economy was able to expand somewhat at the beginning of the year, but the growth rate will probably be below that of the 4th quarter. This data is important for the FED and reflects the impact that the interest rate hikes of the past few months have had on the economy.
What the US job market is concerned, it has continued to develop robustly in recent months, the US unemployment rate is 4% and thus at the pre-Corona level. Experience has shown that it takes a good six months for the effects of a rate hike become visible in economic growth. If the growth rates develop as expected by investors, the FED is likely to make another interest rate hike, even if the price increase has recently decreased somewhat. Core inflation, on the other hand, has not yet reversed significantly.
Gold: Trading setups for the new trading week:
Long Setups: Gold may initially attempt to hold above $1,982.0. If successful, it could continue higher towards our next targets at 1984.8, at 1986.7, at 1988.3, at 1990.5, at 1992.7, at 1994.5, at 1996.0, at 1998 .7, $2,000.9, $2,002.8, $2,004.1, and $2,006.5, respectively. If gold can push above $2006.5, our next targets would be 2007.4, 2009.1, 2010.3, 2012.6, 2014.7, 2016.4, 2018 .0, found at $2,019.7, and then at $2,021.7. Barring any pullbacks here, gold could be our next targets at 2023.2, 2025.4, 2027.6, 2029.1, 2031.0, 2033.5, 2035.3, 2037 .5, at $2,039.8, at $2,042.1, at $2,044.4, at $2,046.6, at $2,049.2, and at $2,051.2, respectively.
Short setup: Initially, if gold fails to sustain above $1,982.0, the precious metal could target our next targets at 1,980.1, 1,978.5, 1,976.1, 1,974.8, 1,972.1 and then start at $1,970.8. Below $1,970.8, our next targets would be 1,969.2, 1,967.5, 1,966.1, 1,964.8, 1,962.7, 1,960.6, 1,958.8, 1,956 .2, at $1,955.0, at $1,953.2, at $1,951.7, at $1,949.9, at $1,947.2, and at $1,945.5, respectively.
Overall expected gold trend in week 17 / 2023:
ACTION at the TESTSIEGER 2023:
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