ABSTRACT: Not much has changed in the overall interpretation of the daily chart for gold. As long as the precious metal is trading below the SMA20 at the end of the day, it could continue down. Overall, the pullbacks could run into the SMA200 area (currently at $1,836.0). In our opinion, there is only a perspective on the upside when gold has not only moved above the SMA20, but also above the SMA50 and, above all, has established itself.
Current gold analysis on June 4th, 2023: chart analysis, weekly outlook, trading setups and more – for active day traders
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Gold framework conditions:
In the US debt dispute, the compromise has passed both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The law can now be signed, just in time, the US would run out of money on June 5th, 2023. The compromise envisages savings in the social sector, but there should be no cuts in the area of defence. The current agreement runs until 2025. The next presidential election will then be over, and the current president will either be confirmed or a new one will be appointed. Until then, the USA will continue to build up its mountain of debt, and the next generation will deal with reducing it, should this be possible at all.
US employment data for May were also released on Friday. Significantly more new jobs were created than assumed by analysts. The labor market in the US remains very robust and is more or less at full employment. This news has also led to very firm stock markets in Europe and the USA.
Gold review: (05/29/2023 – 06/02/2023)
The tradable commodity gold was trading at $1,946.8 as of Monday morning. The precious metal was down $26.20 from Monday morning last week and $0.40 from Friday night’s close. Gold moved sideways in a narrow range on Monday. On Monday morning, the weekly low was formatted at $1,932.1. The precious metal subsequently recovered more significantly. Gold consolidated the rise in the $1,960 area, only continuing to make major gains on Thursday. Gold was able to run into the $1,980 area but failed to confirm last week’s high for the week. As a result, it dipped back below $1,950 on Friday afternoon with momentum and momentum. The precious metal went to 1,948.5 U.S. dollar from the weekly trade.
The weekly high is just below last week’s level, the weekly low was formatted below last week’s level. The end of the week was positive – a small weekly profit could be reported, the 10th this year. This contrasts with twelve weeks with a weekly loss. The range was slightly larger than in the previous week, but was below the annual average. Adjustment of the range: Week 22 / 2023
On the upside, with gold breaching $1,981.8, we were expecting gold to start our next target at $1,983.2. This movement has set in, the start-up target was just missed, the setup did not work optimally. The pullbacks went just below our next target on the downside at $1,932.5, falling below $1,934.9.
Gold – How could it go on:
gold resistors
- 1,958.4
- 1,959.2
- 1,969.2
- 1,970.6
- 1,980.6
- 1,990.0
- 1,991.1
- 2,004.5
Gold supports
- 1,936.0
- 1,917.9
- 1,880.1
- 1,836.0
The most important brands based on our gold setup:
- Intraday mark 1,997 and 1,915
- End of day marks 2,042 and 1,871
- Break1 Bull (Wo-Close) (1,916)
- Break2 Bull (Mon-Closed) (2,041)
- Cyclic movements 2020 – 2033
- Boxing range 2,484 to 1,087
- Ranges 4,497 to 21,378
Gold chart check – viewing in the daily / 4h chart:
DAILY
The daily chart shows that gold has gradually given way after it had formatted the high for the year. It tumbled below both the SMA20 (currently at $1,980.6) and the SMA50 (currently at $1,991.1) that the precious metal has established below as it sells off. At the end of the last trading week, the upper but of the last two daily candles went to the SMA20 again. From here the focus was down again.
Not much has changed in the overall interpretation of the daily chart. As long as the precious metal is trading below the SMA20 at the end of the day, it could continue down. Overall, the pullbacks could run into the SMA200 area (currently at $1,836.0).
In our opinion, there is only a perspective on the upside when gold has not only moved above the SMA20, but also above the SMA50 and, above all, has established itself. If this move succeeds, there are chances that it could revisit the $2,000/$20 area on further upside momentum.
- Classification of higher-level chart image, forecast (daily chart): neutral
Consideration in the 4h chart:
The 4-hour chart shows that gold initially struggled to push above the SMA50 (currently at $1,958.3). After a pullback to the SMA20 (currently at $1.95846), the move was successful. What failed was to establish itself above the SMA20. At the end of the week it not only went below the SMA20, but also below the SMA50.
With this move at the end of the week, the chart picture has clouded over significantly. As long as gold does not succeed in pushing itself back above the SMA50 or subsequently also above the SMA20 and fixing it, further losses could occur. Run-up areas could be $1,920/$17 and then $1,890/$85 area.
Should the precious metal be able to re-establish itself above the SMA20, there is the prospect of starting the SMA200 (currently at $1,990.0). However, it remains to be seen whether this average line will also be overcome. The chart shows that this line could be a tough one.
- Classification short-term chart image, forecast (4 hours): bearish / neutral
Conclusion: As long as gold closes below the 20-day moving average, the losses could widen. Only if the precious metal manages to establish itself above the 50-day moving average again at the end of the day would further recoveries be conceivable and possible
- Probability of bull scenario based on our setup: 40%
- Probability of a bear scenario based on our setup: 60%
Gold – assessment for the coming trading week:
Long Setups: Gold may initially attempt to hold above $1,948.5. If successful, it could continue higher towards our next targets at 1949.4, 1951.1, 1954.0, 1956.8, 1958.4, 1959.2 and then 1961.7. dollars go. Above $1,961.7, our next targets would be 1,963.5, 1,965.7, 1,967.9, 1,969.2, 1,970.6, 1,972.3, 1,974.3, 1,977 .1, found at $1,979.2 and $1,981.8, respectively. Above the $1,981.8 mark would be the 1,983.2, the 1,985.1, the 1,987.4, the 1,989.3, the 1,991.4, the 1,993.5, the 1,995.2, and then the 1,997.1 US dollars are our next targets.
Short setup: If gold fails to hold above $1,948.5, the precious metal could initially target our next targets at 1,946, 1,945.1, 1,943.4, 1,941.7, 1,939.8, and starting at $1,938.7. Below $1,938.7, it could continue down towards our next targets at 1,936.0, at 1,934.4, at 1,932.1, at 1,930.3, at 1,928.4, at 1,926.1, at 1,923, at 9, at $1,921.5, at $1,917.7, at $1,915.4, and at $1,913.3, respectively. Barring any rallies here, gold could be our next targets at 1911.7, 1909.4, 1907.3, 1905.5, 1903.1, 1901.0 and then 1898.7. dollars start up.
Overall expected trend in week 23 / 2023:
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