ABSTRACT: The daily chart shows that gold has gradually given way after it had formatted the high for the year. In the last week of trading, there was initially a consolidation below the SMA50, but from the middle of the week it continued to fall. Although the daily chart can still be interpreted as neutral, the bearish tendencies are increasing.
Current gold analysis on May 28th, 2023: Chart analysis, weekly outlook, trading setups and more – for active day traders
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Gold Review: (05/22/2023 – 05/26/2023)
The precious metal gold was trading at 1973.0 US dollars on Monday morning. The precious metal was down $43.70 from Monday morning last week and $3.00 from Friday night’s close. Gold initially recovered somewhat on Monday morning, but then gave way. It gradually went down until Tuesday morning. Stabilization and recovery only succeeded in the area of 1,955/51 points, which brought the precious metal to the weekly high of 1,985.1 US dollars by Wednesday afternoon. This high was immediately sold off again afterwards. Gold fell back into the $1,960 area by evening. After a lengthy period of consolidation, dynamic returns set in on Thursday afternoon. A recovery only succeeded on Friday morning, but it did not have a dynamic character. In the course of the upward movement, the precious metal was able to push itself back into the area of 1,955 US dollars, from where renewed sales began. The precious metal went to 1,947.3 U.S. dollar from the weekly trade.
The weekly high is below the previous week’s level as well as below the $2,000 mark. The weekly low was also formatted below the previous week’s low. The weekly close could also not be formatted over that of the previous period. Another weekly loss was reported, the 12th this year. The range was significantly smaller than in the previous week and was also below the annual average.
On the upside, with gold breaching $1,984.7, we were expecting gold to start our next target at $1,986.1. This movement has set in, the target was not reached, the setup didn’t fit. The pullbacks went just short of our maximum approach target on the downside at $1,939.8, falling below $1,941.7.
Gold – How could it go on:
gold resistors
- 1,947.9
- 1,951.2
- 1,958.1
- 1,967.3
- 1,970.4
- 1,992.4
- 1,996.3
- 1,998.4
Gold supports
- 1,938.7
- 1,919.7
- 1,880.1
- 1,830.7
The most important brands based on our gold setup:
- Intraday mark 1,997 and 1,915
- End of day marks 2,042 and 1,871
- Break1 Bull (Wo-Close) (1,916)
- Break2 Bull (Mon-Closed) (2,041)
- Cyclic movements 2020 – 2033
- Boxing range 2,484 to 1,087
- Ranges 4,497 to 21,378
Gold chart check – viewing in the daily / 4h chart:
DAILY
The daily chart shows that gold has gradually given way after it had formatted the high for the year. In the last week of trading, there was initially a consolidation below the SMA50 (currently at $1,992.4) / SMA20 (currently at $1,996.3), from the middle of the week it continued to fall.
Although the daily chart can still be interpreted as neutral, the bearish tendencies are increasing. So far it has not been possible to start a convincing countermovement back to the SMA50 / SMA20. As long as the precious metal is trading below these two lines at the end of the day, it could continue down. Overall, the pullbacks could run into the SMA200 area (currently at $1,830.7).
The daily chart would then brighten again if gold manages to push back above the SMA20 and settle at the end of the day. In our view, however, this requires dynamism and momentum. It remains to be seen whether this will happen in the coming trading days.
- Classification of higher-level chart image, forecast (daily chart): neutral
Consideration in the 4h chart:
The 4h chart shows that while gold was able to push above the SMA20 (currently at $1,958.1), it failed to establish itself above this average line. The biggest “hit” was the ramping up of the SMA50 (currently at $1,967.3). From here we headed south again.
As long as gold trades below the SMA20, it could continue down towards $1,920/$15 and above that into the $1,885/$80 area. In the course of this, taxes that could have a dynamic character are also conceivable.
Should there be any recovery, this could initially go as far as the SMA20. If gold can move above this line, it is of central importance that it continues to dynamically move up to and above the SMA50. It is also imperative that the precious metal can subsequently quickly move towards the SMA200 (currently at $1,998.4). If the SMA20 is only started and exceeded in moderate impulses, there is a likelihood that the upward movements could have a manageable character.
- Classification short-term chart image, forecast (4 hours): bearish / neutral
Conclusion: As long as gold closes below the 50-day moving average, losses could widen. Only if the precious metal manages to establish itself above the 20-day moving average again at the end of the day would further recoveries be conceivable and possible
- Probability of bull scenario based on our setup: 40%
- Probability of a bear scenario based on our setup: 60%
Gold framework conditions:
A solution could be found in the short term in the US debt dispute – early on Sunday morning there was talk of a “provisional deal” – the mood is optimistic, but provisional is provisional…
The stock markets were able to increase significantly on Friday.
However, both chambers in the USA still have to approve this legal text. Republicans have a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives. Whether the ranks are really closed will only become clear when the vote is taken. There could be resistance from both parties. Because of the long weekend in the US, the House of Representatives is on hold until June 5th, so MPs must return to Washington to vote.
Irrespective of this, the USA has accumulated a massive mountain of debt in recent years. The 31.4 trillion US debt corresponds to over 130% of annual economic output. About the website https://usdebtclock.org the level of debt in the USA at the various levels of government, but also the tax revenue can be viewed in real time.
Gold: Assessment for the new trading week:
Long Setups: Gold may initially attempt to hold above $1,947.0. If successful, it could continue higher towards our next targets at 1947.9, at 1949.3, at 1951.2, at 1954.0, at 1956.7, at 1958.1, at 1960.7 and then at $1,962.1 go. Above $1,962.1, our next targets would be at 1,964.0, at 1,966.2, at 1,968.3, at 1,970.4, at 1,972.4, at 1,974.3, at 1,977.1, at 1,979.2 and $1,981.8 respectively. Above the $1,981.8 mark would be the 1,983.2, the 1,985.1, the 1,987.4, the 1,989.3, the 1,991.4, the 1,993.5, the 1,995.2, and then the 1,997, $1 our next port of call.
Short setup: Initially, if gold fails to sustain above $1,947.0, the precious metal could target our next targets at 1,946.1, at 1,945.4, at 1,943.7, at 1,941.7, at 1,939.8, at and $1,938.7 respectively. Below $1938.7, it could continue lower towards our next targets at 1936.4, at 1934.9, at 1932.5, at 1930.2, at 1928.4, at 1926.1, at 1923 .9, at $1,921.5, at $1,917.7, at $1,915.4, and at $1,913.3, respectively. Below $1,913.3, our next targets would be 1,911.7, 1,909.4, 1,907.3, 1,905.5, 1,903.1, 1,901.0 and then $1,898.7 to find.
Gold – Overall expected trend in week 22 / 2023:
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