11:23 July 16, 2023
ABSTRACT: While the daily chart has brightened, what is important now is that gold can push above the SMA50 and become firm. From the daily chart it can also be deduced that the level at 1,960/75 US dollars has been a plank repeatedly for the past few months. If the precious metal succeeds in establishing itself above the SMA50, it is also important that the level at 1,974/78 US dollars is also bindingly overcome. If this succeeds, it could subsequently go back to and above $2,000. But what we lack is a clear upward momentum…
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Current gold analysis on July 16, 2023: Chart analysis, weekly outlook, trading setups and more – for active day traders
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Latest Gold Trading News 🔴 Gold Trade Ideas 🔴 Gold Forecast & Outlook
Gold Review: (07/10/2023 – 07/14/2023)
Gold was trading at $1920.0 Monday morning. The precious metal was $3.10 above Monday morning last week’s level but $4.60 below Friday night’s weekly close. Gold initially pulled back sharply on Monday afternoon. However, the setback was immediately bought back. It initially continued to rise, although the upward impulses were of a moderate nature. On Wednesday, the precious metal was able to move dynamically and with momentum to the area of 1,960 US dollars. Until Friday, gold tried several times to overcome this level and to establish a firm hold above this mark without success, which failed. The precious metal went to 1,954.2 U.S. dollar from the weekly trade. This resulted in a positive weekly performance for gold of around 1.5%.
The weekly high is well above the level of the previous week, the weekly low was also formatted above the level of the previous week. A weekly profit could also be reported in the past trading week, the third in a row and the 14th this year. The range was significantly larger than the week before, but was below the annual average.
On the upside, we expected gold to start our next target at $1,964.4 with a break above $1,962.1. This movement has set in, the target was not reached, the setup didn’t work. The pullbacks did not go below $1,913.4 to our next target on the downside at $1,911.0.
Gold – How could it go on:
gold resistors
- 1,958.7
- 1,958.8
- 1,962.8
- 1,972.1
- 1,974.2
- 1,983.7
- 2,004.5
Gold supports
- 1,954.1
- 1,952.5
- 1,940.1
- 1,934.2
- 1,927.4
- 1,919.5
- 1,912.5
- 1,880.1
- 1,873.0
The most important brands based on our gold setup:
- Intraday mark 1,978 and 1,915
- End of day marks 2,042 and 1,871
- Break1 Bull (Wo-Close) (1,916)
- Break2 Bull (Mon-Closed) (2,041)
- Cyclic movements 2020 – 2033
- Boxing range 2,484 to 1,087
- Ranges 4,497 to 21,378
Gold chart check – viewing in the daily / 4h chart:
DAILY
The daily chart shows that gold has not broken above the SMA20 (currently at $1,927.4) for weeks. This line was only overcome in the past trading week. It went straight to the SMA50 (currently at $1,954.1) on the upside. However, the precious metal has failed to establish itself above this line in the past two trading days.
While the daily chart has brightened, what is important now is that gold can push above the SMA50 and become firm. From the daily chart it can also be deduced that the level at 1,960/75 US dollars has been a plank repeatedly for the past few months. If the precious metal succeeds in establishing itself above the SMA50, it is also important that the level at 1,974/78 US dollars is also bindingly overcome. If this succeeds, it could subsequently go back to and above $2,000.
However, if gold fails at the SMA50, it could go down towards the SMA20 again. However, as long as the precious metal is above the SMA20 at the end of the day, recovery movements that could go back to the SMA50 are conceivable at any time. The daily chart would cloud over again if the precious metal settled below the SMA20. Further sell off toward the SMA200 (currently at $1,873.0) could then materialize.
- Classification of higher-level chart image, forecast (daily chart): neutral / bullish
Consideration in the 4h chart:
A few trading days ago, the precious metal moved above the SMA200 (currently at $1,940.1) and was subsequently able to establish it. At the end of the week, however, the upward momentum slowed down again significantly. Friday’s pullback went right to the SMA20 (currently at $1,952.5). From here it went up again. The lack of momentum clouds the currently bullish chart picture somewhat.
Nevertheless, it can be said that as long as gold is quoted above the SMA20, it could continue to rise. Conceivable start-up targets could be 1,972/75 US dollars or 1,988/95 US dollars.
Should setbacks occur, they could initially stabilize and recover in the area of the SMA20. If this line does not hold, the SMA200 could offer further support in the course of pullbacks.
- Classification short-term chart image, forecast (4 hours): bullish
Conclusion: as long as gold is quoted above the 20-day line at the end of the day, it is conceivable and possible that the 50-day line can be exceeded. The starting target of US$ 2,000 would be conceivable if the precious metal establishes itself above the 50-day line. A daily close below the 20-day line would cloud the chart again.
- Probability bull scenario based on our setup: 55%
- Probability of a bear scenario based on our setup: 45%
Gold: Assessment for the new trading week:
Long setup: Gold may initially attempt to hold above $1,954.2. If successful, it could continue higher towards our next targets at 1956.8, at 1958.7, at 1959.6, at 1961.0, at 1962.8, at 1964.4, at 1966.6 and then at to reach $1,968.7. Above $1,968.7, our next targets would be $1,970.1, $1,972.1, $1,974.2, $1,975.5, $1,977.1, $1,979.8, and $1,981.1 respectively find dollars. If there is no pullback at $1,981.1, the upside could continue. Our next targets would be the 1983.3, the 1984.1, the 1986.7, the 1988.5, the 1990.4, the 1992.1, the 1994.8, the 1996.6, the 1998.8, the $2,000.3, the $2,002.1, and then the $2,004.5.
Short setup: If gold fails to hold above $1,954.2, the precious metal could initially target our next targets at 1,952.4, at 1,950.1, at 1,948.7, at 1,945.9, at 1,944.1, at running at $1,942.5 and $1,940.2, respectively. Below $1,940.2, it could continue lower towards our next targets at 1,939.4, at 1,937.7, at 1,935.4, at 1,934.2, at 1,932.7, at 1,930.2, at 1,929 .1, at 1,927.4, at 1,925.7 and then at $1,925.7. If there is no recovery at $1,925.7, the downside could continue. Our next targets would be the 1923.9, the 1922.0, the 1920.5, the 1919.5, the 1917.3, the 1915.1, the 1913.6, the 1912.5, the 1910.4 and the $1,909.0.
Overarching expected trend in week 29 / 2023:
The “big” trading session is over from 8 a.m. to 10 p.m German time. Many other brokers offer low spread only from 09:00 to 17:30 – XTB offers the consistently low spread during BIG trading hours. Experience the XTB Advantage.
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