The researchers from the universities of Grenoble, Lausanne and Zurich calculated different scenarios. In a first scenario, which assumes an (unrealistic) end to warming in 2022, the glaciers will calve by 34 percent by 2050. That’s because the impact of warming will continue for a while.
In a second scenario, in which the trend of the past twenty years was calculated, the glaciers lose 46 percent of their volume. That figure even rises to 65 percent if one only takes the past ten years into account.
The study’s lead author, Samuel Cook, adds that measurements up to 2022 were used for the study, while the summer of 2023 was exceptionally warm. “It is therefore likely that the situation is even worse than we imagine,” it said.