In my article on Sunday, prior to the Andalusian elections, I said that Spain was much better off than other countries because the sum of the populist vote (to Vox and to Podemos) it was quite inferior here. But that, on the contrary, the “Spanish evil”, for many irremediable, was that the PSOE seemed forced to always govern with Podemos and that the only possible alternative would be a pact between the PP and Vox. Spain, trapped in block against block.
After the Andalusian elections things have changed for the better. Spanish populism continues to weigh less than, for example, in France, where the second round of the legislative elections was held on Sunday. Populism in Andalusia has been reduced to Vox, which with 13.5% has increased its percentage somewhat, plus the two formations that emerged from Podemos (12.3%) that have seen their vote fall. In total, populism amounts to 25.8%, a significant but small percentage when compared to the 43.1% of the PP and let alone the 67.2% of the two major parties (PP plus PSOE).
On the contrary, in France Mélenchon’s left-wing populist coalition has achieved 32.64% which, if we add the 17.3% of Le Pen’s party, reaches 49.9% and far exceeds the 38.6% of Macron’s party, which will have the first parliamentary group without an absolute majority. In Andalusia, populism amounts to 25.8%, half of the 49.9% in France.
But what is truly relevant is that the “bad Spanish” thesis has crashed, that neither of the two major parties could govern without populist support. In Andalusia this is no longer the case because, with 43.1% of the votes, the PP has obtained 58 seats, above the absolute majority, which will allow it to govern alone. And having a majority without Vox was the great challenge for both the Andalusian president, Juanma Morenolike Nunez Feijoo, new leader of the PP. Not depending on Vox seemed more like a dream than something feasible.
The success is, first of all, due to Moreno, who with a calm management (without tremendismos or cultural wars against the left) In the polls, he already achieved a wide approval for himself and his management (see my article on Wednesday the 15th). And with this centrist style, very different from that of Madrid Diaz Ayuso and that of those self-conscious before the cries of Vox, has managed not only to contain the rise of the extreme right (which the polls gave up to 19 seats) but to keep the 21 of Cs and steal 3 from the PSOE, perhaps socialist voters who They have believed that the best way to prevent Vox from entering the government was to vote for the PP.
It is a success for Moreno against Vox and the popular ones who are afraid to distance themselves from the extreme right. And also against the PSOE and the rest of the left. At least in Andalusia the most centrist profile of the PP has been electorally profitable. In addition, it is almost certain that Moreno has benefited from the image of the new PP leader, Núñez Feijóo, and that he would not have had the same credibility with a PP led by Pablo Casado or Isabel Díaz Ayuso.
Pedro Sánchez must rethink his strategy. The Podemos disaster indicates that the government with the extreme left generates mistrust
The Andalusian result also has a Spanish reading. Today it is more credible than yesterday -although nothing is certain- that Feijóo’s PP can win future legislative elections without depending on Vox, which will make people lose fear of voting for the right. And this raises questions about the politics of Pedro Sanchez. The PSOE has lost three seats (on its worst historical result), but the two parties of Podemos have been left with 7 when before they had 17. The key -apart from the evils of the division- is that the Andalusians have preferred a moderate government that is not a tributary of the populism of Vox or Podemos.
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Sánchez’s commitment to govern with Podemos, a party in crisis and which criticizes many government decisions, comes out affected after the Andalusian elections. Will the PSOE continue with the policy of the leftist front until the next general elections, or will it have to rectify it in order to win back centrist votes that have gone to the PP in Andalusia?
Sanchez is in a difficult moment. In theory, he has 18 months left in the legislature, in May 2023 he will have municipal and regional elections and the economic situation tends to get complicated. To govern as before, and ignoring the PP, seems like an impossible adventure.