By Nils Kottmann
Germany’s economy has not grown in the past three months compared to the previous quarter, the Federal Statistical Office announced on Friday after an initial estimate. Economists had only expected a measly 0.1 percent growth for the second quarter.
Above all, consumers’ willingness to buy and government spending have supported gross domestic product in the past three months. Exports, which used to be the driving force behind the German economy, slowed down growth. “The difficult global economic conditions with the ongoing corona pandemic, disrupted supply chains, rising prices and the war in Ukraine are clearly reflected in economic development,” said the Wiesbaden statisticians.
► The great danger: If the first statistic calculations are correct AND the economy does not grow in the next three months, we are in recession.
Economist believes: We are already in a downturn
It will only be seen in a few weeks whether it really stays at the zero sum. Then the statisticians can calculate more precisely. After all, looking back at the first three months, the economy ran better than expected: Gross domestic product grew by 0.8 percent instead of the originally calculated 0.2 percent.
For the future, Commerzbank chief economist Jörg Krämer sees black. He assumes that the German economy is already in a downturn. How bad it gets in the end is mainly in the hands of Russia’s dictator Vladimir Putin (69). “If there was a complete halt to gas supplies, a deep recession would be inevitable.”
Inflation falls for the second time in a row
At least there is good news: inflation has been falling for two months and was 7.5 percent in June. That’s still high, but not as high as in record May, when inflation climbed to 7.9 percent. So is the expensive shock slowly subsiding?
Yes, believe the economic experts from Munich’s Ifo Institute. “Prices are likely to continue to rise, but the pace will slow down. Inflation has probably reached its peak and will gradually decline over the course of the second half of the year,” said Ifo economic chief Timo Wollmershäuser on Thursday.
Germany
According to Wollmershäuser and his colleagues, fewer and fewer companies expect that they will have to raise prices in the future. Above all, entrepreneurs in industry, construction, gastronomy, leisure, culture and entertainment believe this.
► Bad news for consumers: In supermarkets, the price shock does not seem to be over for a long time. All the companies surveyed want to raise prices here.
