The peak of the omikron wave in our country is now really in sight. Biostatistician Geert Molenberghs expects on the basis of the most recent figures that the average number of infections will start to decrease on Wednesday or Thursday. This makes him even more optimistic than virologist Steven Van Gucht. He said last Friday that he expected the peak at the end of this week or next week.
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Is it finally that time?
Molenberghs: “Yes, it seems that we will now move towards a decrease in the average number of infections quite quickly. In the most recent daily figures – if we compare them with a week before – we are already starting to see a decrease. Of course against the background of the fact that we are at the limit with our testing policy and that we still have a high positivity ratio. However, the latter does not seem to be increasing anymore.”
When exactly do you expect the peak?
Molenberghs: “It’s about to happen now. I expect that the average number of infections will start to decrease in two to three days. It is a battle of the arm: is this evolution sustainable? Will it continue or is it a temporary hick-up in the numbers? However, the outlook for the coming days is not unfavorable in that regard.”
Do you expect the curve to go down with us as quickly as in other countries?
Molenberghs: “It depends on. If you throw all the measures overboard, you will end up in a different situation than if you continue to follow the logic of the corona barometer. However, we have already seen in many places that a rapid increase was followed by a rapid decrease in a highly contagious variant. So it could be. It is still too early to give precise deadlines. The modeling team has yet to look into that.”
In the scientific journal Science, experts expressed their optimism last week. They said they expected “a period of rest” once omikron was over. What do you think?
Molenberghs: “There is a chance, but we really have to be careful not to deceive ourselves. It was also long thought that delta was so contagious that it would be difficult for a new variant to get past it. But look: omikron has come. It was less sickening. That being said, it seems likely that it will remain calm for a longer period of time. But that is not certain. There is a lot of virus circulating in the world, which means that it can never be ruled out that new variants will arise.”
Can we expect a new wave at the end of this year anyway?
Molenberghs: “It’s way too early to say anything about that, but it’s important to consider the possibility. That’s something most experts agree on. People who think that the endemic phase is now entering and that we are out of it for good are a bit premature. Just because winter is uncertain. But flare-ups can also occur in other seasons. Just think of last summer, when there were major flare-ups even in some warm countries in Europe. This also has to do with travel behavior in the summer. The longer future is difficult to predict.”
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