Two news from Friday. A, electricity prices exceed previous highs due to the strong heat this summer and the gas supply disruption caused by the invasion of Ukraine. Two, Chancellor Scholz declares himself in favor of a gas pipeline that join Spain with Germany through France.
This project, which would take a long time to become operational, shows German anguish over the possibility that Putin will cut off gas supplies in the fall. And so the Midcat project, which was forgotten because Germany lived comfortably with Russian gas, France with its nuclear and Spain (Teresa Ribera) believed that the only future was renewables, she commands all the covers.
Let’s go to the essentials. Berlin is justified in fearing the cut off of Russian gas. The North Stream-1the main gas pipeline with Russia, only works at 20% and Putin believes that the total cut could be a deterrent weapon against western sanctions. It would cause a major recession in Germany, which would spread to all of Europe and the price of liquefied gas from other countries would rise and hurt it even more. Faced with this serious danger, the Brussels Commission, chaired by the German and member of the European PP Ursula von der Leyen, decided at the end of July that all countries should save 15% of your current gas consumption. But Spain, due to its great capacity to import liquefied gas, managed to reduce its cut to only 7%.
And on August 1 the Government published a decree, which could not be popular, to iImpose limits on cooling and heating and the shutdown of commercial windows at ten at night. Of course it was improvised and could be better, but it was urgent and could not be delayed, because Spain -beneficiary of European solidarity- could not sit around discussing it with 17 autonomies. The surprise was not the complaints – understandable – but that Isabel Díaz Ayuso proclaimed the insubmission –“Madrid does not go out & rdquor;-, although he later rectified: he will comply, but he will resort to the Constitutional Court.
The PP supports Ayuso’s appeal, although several of its autonomies will not file it. And Feijóo, who has been discreet, must think that it is in his best interest not to divide the party and not let the protest be capitalized by Vox. Although it contradicts a directive promoted by a relevant EPP policy.
And so we have entered into a harsh battle that in an autonomous system (federal, little organized) and with highly politicized courts can end in any way. At the moment, it makes necessary measures difficult. Why this feeling of insecurity and misrule, which was already experienced with the measures against the pandemic? Because an autonomous system requires constitutional loyalty, an almost impossible virtue if the leaders of the PSOE and the PP, who respectively control eight and six autonomies, live in permanent war. Without the cooperation of the two major parties, the system chokes.
Probably, a previous call from Sánchez to Feijóo would have channeled things and prevented the populist speech of Isabel Díaz Ayuso. But there is no trust between them. Sánchez believes that Feijóo does not deserve it because he still has not renewed -two years after the term- the Council of the Judicial Power. And he prefers that Feijóo entrench himself on the right and it is more difficult for him to bite in the center.
And Feijóo believes that Sánchez ignores the opposition leader on purpose and opts for go to tow the protests, to neither have internal problems nor fatten Vox. And an inflation of 10.8%, when wages rise by 2.5% in agreements, is fertile ground for bad humor.
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Everything makes sense, but if the autonomic system provokes continuous constitutional litigation in ‘Spanish Spain’, how will it be respected in the Basque Country and Catalonia, with executives who want to overwhelm it? Although it seems that this time Urkullu and Aragonès are less rebellious than Ayuso.
Many argue that politics is ruthless and that an ambitious politician must be willing to do anything – including killing his mother – to stay in power. Or to conquer it. Perhaps, but in any case, this Spanish-Spanish war, as today’s European Commissioner Josep Borrell charitably defines it, does not benefit stability. Too bad for the citizens! Better for leaders?