• Cycle divided into five phases
• Examined NFTs, Metaverse and Web3
Every year the market researcher Gartner publishes its “latest Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies”. This is an investigation of more than 2,000 technologies in terms of maturity, acceptance, application and relevance using graphical representations. It assumes that every new technology goes through different phases of a cycle with the appearance of the first idea until the mature technology is finally applied productively – or disappears forever. The cycle is divided into five phases, which continue chronologically and in each of which the new technology receives varying amounts of attention.
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The five phases of the hype cycle
The cycle starts with the “Technological Trigger” phase, which is the idea behind the new technology or a breakthrough that makes it possible. What follows is the “summit of exaggerated expectations”, as Gartner puts it on their own company website. This means that the new technology is at the peak of the hype and is therefore receiving a great deal of attention. However, this decreases significantly in the next phase, and the “Valley of Disappointments” follows. Some technologies will not make it out of this valley and will fail. However, if after some time the “path of enlightenment” is reached, the trend reversal finally takes place towards the last phase, the “plateau of productivity”. This is where the new technology finally arrives in the mainstream.
So Gartner has analyzed the latest technologies to see what phase they are in. Interested parties should be given the opportunity “to find out more about the promise of an emerging technology in the context of their industry and their individual willingness to take risks”. In this way, it is easier for customers to decide whether the risk of investing in a new technology is more or less worthwhile.
Such are the prospects of NFTs, Metaverse and Web3
Among the 2,000+ technologies Gartner looked at were NFTs, the Metaverse, and Web3. According to Gartner, what categories do these buzzwords fall into?
According to Inside IT, the market research company currently sees non-fungible tokens or NFTs in the phase of the peak of exaggerated expectations. However, the hype has already peaked, the beginnings of the valley of disappointments are already beginning, but are not yet particularly pronounced. When it comes to the supposed future prospects for NFTs, Gartner doesn’t want to lean too far out of the window. While the researchers say the unique tokens should reach the productivity plateau in two to five years, the long-term success of NFTs would depend heavily on the overarching trend toward immersive experiences, meaning immersion in virtual worlds.
Accordingly, the Metaverse is closely interwoven with this. According to Gartner, this is still in the first phase, so it is still at the very beginning of its development. However, the market research company assumes that the trend will continue in the longer term. However, it will probably take another ten years to reach market maturity and the “plateau of productivity”. The Web3 should at least make it into commercial use in five to ten years. According to the researchers, it is currently in the second phase, but has not quite reached the peak here.
It remains to be seen whether Gartner will be right in its assessment of the different technologies.
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