Since the creation of the UN war is prohibited as a legal instrument to resolve differences between countries. It is understood that, even with the exception of article 51 of its founding Charter (right to legitimate defense), only the Security Council can determine if something is a threat to peace and, consequently, it is the only one entitled to activate “all necessary means & rdquor; to neutralize it. Unfortunately, there are dozens of wars that have been recorded since that time and still today there are more than thirty active foci in different corners of the planet. In any case, there is a common feature in all of them: no one has bothered to declare it.
And now Russia, after the sinking of the flagship of its Black Sea fleet and while it announces on its news that World War III has begun, is emitting signals that would make one think that it is about to declare war on Ukraineabandoning the official concept used until now to refer to the invasion as a “special military operation & rdquor ;.
Reviewing history, it is immediate to confirm that any declaration of war brings together three elements: an ad showing the intention to use force, a explanation of the reasons leading up to that point and a proposal for what should the enemy do to avoid it. It is conceivable that, until now, Moscow has not chosen this path both because it understands that such an act only makes sense between sovereign states – and Putin has given ample evidence that he does not consider Ukraine as such – but because of its misconception that a “special military operation” was enough for him; to topple Zelensky and control the country.
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It is, therefore, the negative outlook now presented to it – as a result of its strategic errors and the ineptitude and incompetence of its forces deployed on the ground – that would explain a jump of this magnitude, in which two intentions can be guessed. Internally, and beyond the bizarre plot twist that involves declaring war on an invaded country that defends itself from the attack received and sinks its main combat ship, a step of these dimensions opens the door to a general mobilization, that allows him to add more troops with which to reinforce the attack. In this way, seeking victory by pure crushing, taking advantage of its demographic superiority (144 million people compared to 44), it can bypass the formal limit that prevents it from employing conscripts in combat missions outside the national territory, at a time when It seems clear that with the forces already deployed in Ukraine, nothing guarantees victory, since does not even have a manifest numerical superiority on the current battlefield.
In an external key, declaring war also serves to claim the help of the rest of the countries of the Organization of Collective Security -Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan-, linked by a treaty that in its article 4 contemplates a clause of common response to the attack received by one of its members. Very far from the level of operation of NATO, Russia has already resorted to it to placate the citizen mobilizations registered in Kazakhstan in January of this year, at the request of the Kazakh president. Arriving at the decisive moment in which, with the Donbas as the biggest piece of the Russian hunt, Putin needs all the means at his disposal to break those who until now have irremediably not wanted to capitulate.