How are the parliamentary elections organised?
In France, the national assembly, the French House of Representatives, elected through two rounds of voting. The first of these will take place on Sunday. The country is divided into 577 constituencies, each associated with one seat. The MPs are therefore often locally rooted, although this is not mandatory. Eleven seats have been reserved for the French living abroad.
All candidates who get at least 12.5 percent of the vote in their constituency in the first round will advance to the second and deciding round. It will take place a week later, also on Sunday. There is one exception: if a candidate already wins more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round, with at least a quarter of the registered voters (not everyone who is allowed to vote does), a second round is not necessary. However, such a gain is rare.
What’s at stake?
In France, the president has a lot of power, and parliamentary elections often receive less attention than presidential elections. Nevertheless, the outcome is of great importance for the president’s clout. If Macron wins a majority in parliament, it will be a lot easier for him to pass new legislation. But if another party becomes the largest, the president will have to appoint a new prime minister from the winning camp.
Such a collaboration between a president and prime minister of different parties is called cohabitation, literally: living together. France has seen that before, but that was at a time when the parliamentary elections were about halfway through the president’s term. This time Macron is just getting started.
Does it promise to be exciting?
Since both elections have been held in quick succession since 2002 (Macron was re-elected at the end of April), the expectation is that the new president will also achieve a convincing majority in parliament. This time it is different. The four main left-wing parties have reached an agreement and will run as one bloc in the elections, hoping to become the largest and force a left-wing prime minister. While that seems unlikely, the new alliance ‘Nupes’ is doing well in the polls. The Macron camp is losing ground in those polls, putting an absolute majority (289 seats) in danger for the president.
A strong united left-wing opposition can also make it difficult for the president to push through his reform agenda. Independent of their political party, MPs can choose to unite in a political group. The larger the group, the more privileges and powers.
What are the predictions?
Since last week, various polls have shown that an absolute majority (289 seats) for Macron is uncertain. Polling agency Ipsos-Sopra Steria this week reached 260 to 300 seats for Macron’s Renaissance party along with his loyal parties MoDem, Horizons and Agir. For the left-wing coalition, the forecast came out at 175 to 215 seats. But the predictions are difficult, because each of the 577 districts has its own dynamics. The two-round electoral system usually works out badly for the flanks, in favor of a more moderate majority. Rassemblement National, Marine Le Pen’s party that was Macron’s main opponent in the presidential election, won just 20 to 60 seats in the same poll.
A small advance on the results of the first round came this week from the foreign constituencies, where voting takes place a few days earlier. There, in nine of the eleven districts, the second round will take place between camp Macron and the left-wing bloc.