Jonathan Haydt argues that democracies stick together and function better when they have a dense social fabric, strong institutions, and shared narratives. When these elements fail or weaken, so do democracies and that explains some of the problems we have in Spain (in my opinion it is a mistake to have transferred education to the autonomous communities), although broad beans are not only cooked here. In United States, Donald Trump got 70 million votes and he came dangerously close to Joe Biden’s 77 million because he knew how to attract people with a simple but false message they saw the disappearance of a well-being and a way of life that they believed to be eternal. And that produces uncertainty, uneasiness and anguish that are very easily channeled by populist leaders to add water to their mill with identity and xenophobic proclamations. The same thing happened with the Brexit, when a majority of Britons chose to be mouseheads despite being part of the European lion’s head from which they decided to move away. And now it’s the turn of France.
In the first round of the presidential elections there have been no surprises (except an abstention of 26.3%, higher than expected) and the current president has gone to the second round next Sunday Emmanuel Macron, leader of La República en Marcha (27.9% of the votes) and Marine Le Pen, of the National Rally (23.1%). The great traditional parties, the Socialists and the Republicans, have disappeared in practice, since between them they have not reached 7% of the votes, and the results of the Communists (2.3%) and the Greens have also been very poor. (4.5%). It has only been saved from burning Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of France Insumisa (22%), close to the same left-wing populist postulates that United We Can defend in Spain. Also the ultranationalist and xenophobic Eric Zemour, (Reconquest, 7.1%) has obtained a good result by taking away a few votes from Le Pen in exchange for softening his image of radicalism, which can favor it in the second round. The serious thing is that, altogether, a third of the votes have gone to the extreme right and more than half have opted for anti-establishment candidates. If we add abstention, it turns out that 2/3 of the French do not recognize themselves today in the traditional parties that have been the backbone of France in recent decades. It is a very profound change.
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Now the struggle is no longer between left and right, that seems overcome, but between the center-right and the ultra-right, and Macron and Le Pen are fighting for the votes that went to the parties eliminated in the primaries. Some leaders like Hidalgo (socialist), Pécresse (republicans) and Jadot (green) have promised them to Macron, who seems to start with a certain advantage although I suppose that in France they also know that everything is bull until the tail. Mélenchon limited himself to saying that not one vote for Le Pen but he has not come to ask for it for Macronand also one thing is what the leaders advise and another what their followers end up voting on April 24, when abstention will be high againbecause both candidates arouse rejection in broad segments of the population: Macron among peasants and workers victims of inflation, loss of purchasing power (yellow vests) and, ultimately, deindustrialization, while the far-right Le Pen is scary in more educated sectors, despite having moderated their most radical proposals and surrounding themselves with cats to offer a friendly image.
France loses with this polarization between cosmopolitanism and traditionalism, between Europe and nationalism, between openness and xenophobia, between moderates and radicals, between continuity and anti-system candidates. And she also loses Europe because neither the nationalist right of Le Pen nor the populist left of Mélenchon are pro-European or Atlanticist, both demand that France leave the NATO military structure and flirt with Putin’s invading Russia. In France, an alternation within the consensus on essential elements of its own identity and its role in Europe is no longer possible. Sounds like a grim prophecy by Houellebecq and it should worry us because it is the same thing that would happen to us if Vox and United We Can manage to ‘bypass’ the PP and the PSOE as they wish, with the aggravating circumstance that in Spain the center has disappeared. Cross our fingers.