Since in 1962 the general De Gaulle had it approved in a referendum the election by universal suffrage, the president is in France the great source of power. So the whole left opposed it, but then the socialist Mitterrand was the one who held the position the longest (two terms of seven years) and used all its powers.
Professor Maurice Duverger said the Fifth Republic was “a republican monarchy” and the 2000 reform, which shortened the term from seven to five years but made legislative elections immediately follow presidential ones, further strengthened presidential power.
Today France is shocked. ‘Le Point’, center-right weekly, speaks of “The French Tragedy” and ‘L’Observateur’ (left) of ‘a diminished president’. Macron, the winner of 2017, has suffered a serious setback. Elected in the second round of the presidential elections in April with 58% of the votes, in June he has been punished by remaining in the legislative elections without an absolute majority. His coalition has won 250 seats when the absolute majority is 289.
Since the reform of 2000 a president without a majority was unimaginable. Macron was re-elected in April as the lesser evil despite his loss of charisma and now many analysts hold him responsible for the situation. Franz Olivier Giesbert, Mitterrand’s biographer and director of ‘Le Point’, states that France, due to the rise of populism, it looks like a field of ruins like Weimar Germany, and that the appointed prime minister, Élisabeth Borne, is “a woman of the left, sad as a day without bread.” Two great exaggerations that indicate disenchantment with the newly re-elected president.
There are fear of the future due to the absence of a majority to govern. In addition, a hypothetical sum of the two populisms, that of Le Pen’s extreme right (89 seats) and that of Mélenchon’s leftist coalition (133) would reach 222 deputies. And the Republicans (right) who are 62 They have already said that they both reject entering the Government as a legislature agreement.
Thus Macron and the prime minister will only be able to govern, something unprecedented in France, agreeing everything in Parliament. It will be tough because the Republicans are resentful of Macron and accuse Borne of being pro-socialist. And both Le Pen and Mélenchon agree a strong reluctance to the European Union and in the rejection of the proposal to raise the retirement age from 62 (a French exception) to 65. In addition, Macron has promised that there will be neither a tax increase nor more public debt (the French one is already almost at the level of the Spanish), while Le Pen and Mélenchon demand more social spending. Financed as it is.
But the diminished Macron can benefit from disunity of their opposites. The prime minister has not dared to ask for a vote of confidence for fear of losing it. A show of weakness, but it is difficult for Le Pen and Mélenchon to join in a joint action against the Government. And even more so that the Republicans (classical right) join.
And the left-wing front, united today, can crack because Of its 133 deputies, only 75 are rebellious. The rest are socialists or ecologists who will not always follow Mélenchon’s maximalism.
Élisabeth Borne has said that the problems should not be exaggerated because they also in other European countries everything has to be agreed upon. And you must bet on negotiating with Republicans, socialists and environmentalists.
France is not facing a tragedy, but it is two worrying phenomena: the lack of a parliamentary majority that creates instability (as we see in Spain), and a substantial increase in the number of deputies for Le Pen and Mélenchon that are like water and oil, but they agree on some populist demands.
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It does not seem like the end of the world, nor a tragedy. The proof is that the hasty motion of censure presented yesterday by Mélenchon it failed to achieve only 146 votes, far from the required majority. However, what is certain is that Macron’s second term will be more unstable and that, if it occurs, strong social protests like that of the yellow vests of the last legislature, they could unite Le Pen and Mélenchon against the Government.
Duverger would say that Macron will no longer be able to act like a republican king.