The hypothesis of partial efficacy of vaccines in the face of Covid-19 variants raised at the end of September by the Update to the Def has become reality. And with it, the contours of the adverse scenario outlined by the technicians of the Ministry of Economy risk being realized alongside the more optimistic forecast that underlies the public finance program.
Translated into figures, in the Nadef hypothesis, an extension of the fourth pandemic wave that translates into new restrictive measures of economic activity would mean a 1.4% cut in the growth trend scheduled for next year. In practice, the basic GDP dynamic would stop at 2.8% (and not 1.8% as erroneously written in the document) instead of running to 4.2%, bringing real growth driven by the maneuver now under discussion in the Senate 3.3% instead of the 4.7% target set by the government.
This whirlwind of percentages serves to measure the alarm produced by the umpteenth pandemic resurgence on public accounts, and in particular on the deficit and debt reduction line that represents the heart of the 2022 program. But there is more.
The risks of a slowdown
Because a new slowdown in the economy, which can also be caused by the net worsening of the situation in countries such as Great Britain and Germany, which are among our main trading partners, would inevitably fuel the pressure on the government for a new deviation of balance. Which more than a leading exponent of the majority is already planning for February, once a quirinal vote has been passed which already raises more than one unknown factor on the government.
It is premature to speculate on figures
The request for a new deficit, for which it is premature to hypothesize figures with some basis, would first of all serve to redress the funds against the expensive bills, which up to now have absorbed resources for 9.3 billion jointly judged insufficient to buffer even the spring price increases.