Did Aston Martin throw away victory at the Monaco Grand Prix with an unnecessary pit stop on Fernando Alonso’s medium tyres? Using data from the technology company PACETEQ, we have looked at what is probably the most discussed question after the Grand Prix in the Principality and the answer is yes!
If Aston Martin hadn’t used the medium tire at Alonso’s pit stop on lap 54, but the intermediate, the sensation could have worked, as Red Bull driver Max Verstappen had serious problems with his old medium at the top.
It turned out Aston Martin’s poker hand didn’t pan out on the new mediums as the rain intensified on the Cote d’Azur and Alonso had to pit again a lap later, this time for intermediates. But how would the race have gone if Alonso had switched from his hard tires to the Inters on lap 54?
As with Verstappen, nothing worked anymore
Between laps 50 and 53, Verstappen’s advantage over Alonso was a constant 13 seconds, but on lap 54 the Dutchman began to have serious problems with the rain that was getting heavier and heavier. The Red Bull driver lost five seconds, so that at the end of lap 54 Alonso was only eight seconds behind when he pitted.
Verstappen had even more problems on lap 55 before finally turning into the pits in the last sector to switch to intermediates. On the new medium tyres, Alonso Verstappen was able to lose a full six seconds on the old mediums! And that although Alonso was on an outlap.
On an outlap you lose about 1.5 seconds in the first sector in Monaco, because you still have to cross the start and finish line in the pit lane and still have to drive out of the pits onto the track, while on a normal lap you are flat out in the pits drives by.
In that sense, Alonso would have gained a full 7.5 seconds had he stayed out on the mediums as Verstappen’s outlap was still to come. But given the weather, this made no sense.
Hamilton’s outlap shows: Alonso had a chance to win
The question that now arises: Would Alonso have made up the eight-second gap to Verstappen if he had taken the intermediates instead of the mediums? After all, even with the dry tires he would have finished just half a second behind the Dutchman.
Lewis Hamilton’s outlap can answer this question. Like Alonso, he came into the pits at the end of lap 54 but switched to the intermediates. On his outlap on lap 55, the Brit clocked 1:39.0 minutes, 7.5 seconds faster than Max Verstappen’s 1:46.5 minutes, who was still out with the old mediums but pitted at the end of the lap.
If you add Verstappen’s time loss of 1.5 seconds in the first sector after the stop, Hamilton has made up nine seconds, which would have been enough for Alonso. This shows that a huge undercut for Alonso would have been possible if Aston Martin had immediately raised the intermediate and Alonso had also managed an outlap like Hamilton.
We have clarified a complete analysis of Alonso’s strategy and other questions about the race strategy in Monaco in a video on the Formel1.de YouTube channel, including the following topics: Has Ferrari messed up with the strategy again? And: What was Red Bull’s plan with Sergio Perez?