Former Colonel Roger Housen calls the abandonment of Kiev “an ignominious defeat” for Russia. He says that at VTM Nieuws. He suspects that Russian troops will reposition themselves in eastern Ukraine. According to Housen, the war in Ukraine will not last for years, as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says. Housen suspects that the Russians are targeting a conquest of the Donbass region by May 9. “That’s Victory Day,” said Housen.
“In the meantime, I think we can say that the initial plan, namely to overthrow the regime within two weeks and occupy a large part of Ukraine, has failed,” clarifies Housen. “The Russians had to switch to plan B and in the meantime even plan C. We can consider giving up Kiev as an ignominious defeat for Russia. The next few weeks will show whether we can speak of a humiliation.”
Housen suspects that the Russians are repositioning themselves. “There are indications that troops around Kiev are being moved eastwards via railways to the Donbass region,” it said. “That is a distance of about 600 to 700 kilometers, an operation that takes a few days, maybe even a week and a half. Those 40,000 to 45,000 soldiers from around Kiev will most likely line up in eastern Ukraine and try to expand the Donbass region.”
Whether the Russians want to sit down about a surrender on their terms is a big question mark. “If the Russians can extend Donetsk and Luhansk to the provincial borders and if the land bridge over Mariupol can be realized in the south, then the Kremlin may sit down at the table,” Housen said.
Victory Day
The ex-colonel thinks the Kremlin is aiming to capture the Donbass region, the oblasts and the land bridge by May 9. “That’s Victory Day. The victory over the Nazis is commemorated annually on that date with a parade. I think by then the point is to say that they have achieved their goals.”
More and more images are emerging of civilian deaths after the massacre in Boetsja. The image of the dead woman with the red-painted nails is causing outrage worldwide. According to Housen, killing civilians may be part of Russia’s war tactics, but there is currently too little independent reporting to confirm this. “There are still too few indications that it has happened in other cities. We do know that in 1999 the Russians did the same in the Chechen capital Grozny. Between 2015-2017 they also did that in Aleppo, Syria.”
Finally, Housen points out that local units in Butsha may have lost their footing due to poor progress on the ground. “For Russia, civilian casualties are part of war. Ukraine will never trust Russia again. They will create an aversion to everything the Russians say and do. That country is lost to Russia.”
What the Russians see on TV: “The Ukrainians have created a bloodthirsty, totalitarian, satanist sect” (+)
Eyewitnesses broken by horror in Butsha: “They shot my daughter just like that. I couldn’t even bury her” (+)
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