Prices high and, at the same time, slowing down the increase. Economists talk about stagflation when the former do not stop growing and the gross domestic product (GDP), for its part, stops growing, it stagnates. It is not the current situation, despite the fact that there are warnings that the economy could be heading towards this destination and warnings such as the one from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which send messages such as that, on a global level, “the worst is yet to come”.
In any case, the economic forecastswhich are maintained and even improved for the current year in the case of Spain thanks to the pull provided by the sightseeing especially in the second and third quarters, they get much worse for the coming year. In fact, each new estimate cuts growth for 2023.
The Government itself, which since last year has had to rectify its estimates four times, has placed the last one at 4.3% in 2022 and 2.1%, six tenths less than in its previous revision, the one planned for the next exercise. without mentioning the word recession (a fall in growth for two consecutive months), the calculations for next year favor analysis and study services towards a slowdown of around 1%, about half of what the Executive of Pedro Sanchez.
In any case, without the forecasts of falls in the GDP of Italy or of the European locomotive, Germany. Only the General Council of Economists spoke in the summer of prospects of falling into a recession. That would mean two consecutive quarters of GDP decline, as has happened in the US.
Last year it was calculated that the rise in activity would be around 3.5% next year, so the cut is drasticalthough, by contrast, the forecast for Spain continues to be above that of the largest economies in the euro area, as stated in the latest IMF report, which lowers forecast growth to 1.2%. If compared to the forecast that this institution made last April, the cut is neither more nor less than 2.1 points.
According to sources from the Ministry of Economy, in 2023, the forecast is that the Spanish economy will double the growth of the average of the euro zone and will also be well above the other large economies of the euro. And, as far as forecasts for inflation for Spain, it is expected that it will have peaked in 2022 and that in 2023 it will be below the average of the euro zone.
Forecasts have worsened to just three months, as a result of a inflation which still seems not to be very controlled, despite the respite in September in Spain, with 8.9%, and even less with a war in Ukraine of which no near end is predicted. The news from Germany, with a rise in the general level of prices of 10%; and in the US, with an entrenched CPI above 8% and 6.6% if the most volatile elements such as energy or unprocessed food are excluded, they do not bode well. When Germany sneezes, the rest of the European countries get cold.
The problem with the forecasts is that those of the Government are the ones used to forecast income and expenses in the General State Budget project for 2023. And the Bank of Spain, one day after the Minister of Finance, Maria Jesus Montero, delivered it to Congress, released forecasts that are very similar to the Executive this year but that for the next one are reduced to 1.4%, seven tenths less than those of the Executive. BBVA Research even drops to 1% and, in terms of inflation, all forecasts are high for this year, which continues to be a cause for concern both in Europe and worldwide.
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Despite all this, the First Vice President and Minister of Economy, Nadia Calvino, insisted from the US, where he attended the IMF and World Bank autumn assembly on “strong resilience & rdquor; of the Spanish economy which, he has said, “continues to register strong growth and presents a series of strength elements to face and address the challenges ahead & rdquor ;.
In a meeting with the press before traveling to Washington for the IMF meetings, where he chaired the International Monetary and Financial Committee, Calviño focused on the fact that the growth forecast for next year, despite the downward trend, “will be very above the countries around us & rdquor ;.