Football predictions, Atalanta-Napoli: Spalletti like Sarri, watch out for the former Zapata

Last three days before the World Cup break. Atalanta hosts Napoli at the Gewiss Stadium: kick-off on Saturday at 6 pm Gasperini’s team beat Empoli 2-0 in the last round of the championship, Spalletti’s team lost 2-0 against Liverpool. Anfield closing the Champions League group at the top.

First false step

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Napoli against the Reds lost their first game after seven months. The last time Osimhen and his teammates were knocked out was against Empoli on 24 April: the final result was 3-2. The Azzurri were the only formation in the top five European championships, together with PSG, to have never lost. Now Spalletti’s team has had to give up the record.

Saturday is the away match in Bergamo: Napoli have won all their last four away games in Serie A and have not achieved five consecutive away wins since 2017/18 with Sarri on the bench (six). But it is not the first time that Spalletti has managed to line up all these victories, he had already reached eight consecutive victories in the last championship. The Azzurri aim for the goal of 10 set in February 2018 by Sarri.

The thrust of the Gewiss Stadium

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Atalanta wants to start off on the right foot in front of their fans. Gasperini’s team lost 0-2 against Lazio in their last home game: only once in the Gasperini management, the Goddess missed the goal for two home games in a row (three, between September and October 2018). This is an important indication for the odds, the Gol sign is a concrete chance: it is worth 1.58 for 888Sport and Leovegas, 1.55 according to Planetwin.

Attention to the final result: the last draw in Bergamo between Atalanta and Napoli in Serie A came on 29 October 2014 (1-1 signed by Denis and Higuaín). Since then, three wins by the Goddess and four by the Azzurri. The X is in fact quoted 3.80 by 888Sport, 3.60 according to Netbet and Novibet. Looking at the other signs: the 1 is proposed 3.45 by 888Sport, 3.40 according to Sisal and Better. The 2 is stopped at 2.15 on Bet365, 2.11 for Netbet and Novibet.

Spalletti’s team (46) and Gasperini’s (84) are two of the four teams that have remained below the score for fewer minutes during this championship: among them there are Lazio (81) and Inter (83). The Goddess unlocked the result ten times first: an eventuality proposed 2.30 by Bet365, 2.20 according to Betfair and 2.18 for Leovegas. Osimhen and his companions have succeeded eight times, the same hypothesis for the Azzurri is quoted 1.73 by Betfair, 1.66 for Bet365 and 1.62 on Leovegas.

A few numbers

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There is a fact to consider: Atalanta have found the goal in all their last eight league games against Napoli and never in their history in Serie A have they managed to score in more consecutive matches against the Azzurri. Considering that Osimhen and his teammates are the best attack in the league (30 goals in 12 games, 2.5 on average per game) Over 2.5 is a good play: 1.68 the quotation of Goldbet, Better and Leovegas.

In the last seven matches, the Bergamo club has obtained double the successes of their opponents (4 against 2): however, Spalletti’s team won the most recent match. But he hasn’t managed to squeeze two wins in a row in A against Atalanta since December 2018 (three).

The tip: 2 + Goals

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At the Gewiss Stadium it will be an open challenge between two teams who attack without sparing each other. Analyzing the statistics, one possibility is to bet on sign 2 combined with the Goal: 3.75 the proposal of Bet365, Goldbet and Better.

Kvara out

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Spalletti will have to do without Kvaratskhelia after the worsening of an annoying low back pain that will keep him out of the away match in Bergamo. The conditions of the Georgian will be evaluated in the coming days to understand if he will be able to recover already for the midweek round on Tuesday against Empoli or for the last home match before the break against Udinese. In place of him against Atalanta there could be Elmas, the Raspadori hypothesis remains possible.

The protagonists

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Duvan Zapata made his Serie A debut with the Napoli shirt, wearing it for 37 league games between 2013 and 2015. In his last six matches against the Azzurri, the Colombian forward has taken part in six goals: three goals and three assists . Scorer at any time in the match is 2.95.

Among the formations to which he has only scored one goal, Atalanta is the one against which Giovanni Simeone has played the most minutes (924). The Argentine striker found the goal against the Dea only in the first leg of last season, when he was wearing the Verona shirt. A goal of him on Saturday is worth 2.45.

Probable formations

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Scalvini should have recovered. Gasperini is ready to find Zapata, while Muriel stops who will not return before 2023. In Bergamo, Spalletti should prefer Lozano to Politano, Raspadori off the bench.

Atalanta (3-4-1-2): Musso; Toloi, Demiral, Djimsiti; Hateboer, Koopmeiners, Scalvini, Maehle; Pasalic; Lookman; Zapata.

Naples (4-3-3): Meret; Di Lorenzo, Juan Jesus, Kim, Mario Rui; Angiussa, Lobotka, Zielinski; Lozano, Osimhen, Elmas.