Experts from the RIVM announced this yesterday on the basis of data from, among others, Nivel GP sentinel stations and hospital laboratories. Both have been showing an upward trend since the start of the epidemic in week 8. The type A virus is the most circulating virus. “People still go to the doctor less often, but when they do go, a lot of flu is found,” says epidemiologist Rianne Van Gageldonk.
It is difficult to predict whether it will really move in the direction of the 2018 epidemic, says virologist Adam Meijer. ,,It can either go up for a short while and then -for example due to circumstances such as good weather- quickly extinguish. But it can also last for weeks. On the other hand, the RS virus also surfaced during the summer and fall of last year; a favorable climate does not necessarily mean that a virus has no chance.”
The experts say that hospitals are increasingly seeing more patients with flu, but it is not so worrying that there are not enough beds or that patients have to be moved to other hospitals. The flu vaccine that has been given to people who have been called up for it is -just like in other years- 30% effective. After a flu vaccination, people are protected for about six months. There are no data showing an improved protection after a second (booster) vaccination in the same season. On average, a person gets the flu once every 10 years.
The flu started late this year, in week 8 and we are now in week 16. That probably has to do with the release of the measures. The experts don’t know when the ‘regular’ flu cycle will recover; normally it starts in November of the year.