The government approved the list of unfriendly countries
In 2022, like seven years ago, fish imports may be reduced due to the loss of supplies from “unfriendly countries” (to the government-approved scroll includes 47 countries and territories), as well as from those states that themselves restrict the supply of fish products to Russia – in 2021 they accounted for 35% of imports in physical terms and 24% in monetary terms.
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The Federal Agency for Fishery notes that fish supplies from abroad are already declining: according to Rosstat, cited by the agency, in January-February 2022, fish imports amounted to 84.32 thousand tons, which is 10.5% lower than in the same period of 2021. The decrease in imports in the Federal Agency for Fishery is explained primarily by “the sanctions imposed on Russia by unfriendly countries.” The agency emphasizes that “Rosrybolovstvo regularly monitors the situation with the filling of fish products within the country in order, if necessary, to make proposals for regulating the volume of supplies to replenish the volumes that have fallen on the domestic market”: “On average, Russian citizens consume about 3.2 million tons of fish per year. Taking into account the positive indicators for catches (since the beginning of 2022, more than 1.2 million tons of aquatic biological resources have been harvested), the growth in the production of fish, processed and canned fish products (in January-February 2022, production amounted to 626.7 thousand tons), as well as With the continued development of aquaculture, the domestic market will be fully provided with a wide range of fish products.”
In March, a number of key fish suppliers to the Russian market announced restrictions on product shipments: companies from the Faroe Islands and Greenland, in particular, announced plans to suspend supplies, Buglak notes. At risk, he said, may also be products that come from New Zealand.
Among other factors that may lead to a decrease in supplies, the authors of the study name a rise in the price of imported fish for the Russian consumer due to the devaluation of the ruble and the redistribution of demand within the consumer basket, difficulties with logistics (large carriers, such as Maersk and MSC, announced plans to leave the Russian market) and the increased cost of transportation, as well as possible failures in settlements with foreign suppliers due to sanctions against Russian banks.
Guide to sanctions and restrictions against Russia. The main thing
Which imported fish will be difficult to replace
Deliveries of shrimp, Atlantic herring and mackerel can be partially replaced by domestic products – Russian enterprises extract them, although they may differ in quality from imported ones, Buglak admits. Frozen fish can be replaced with domestic white fish fillets – pollock, cod and haddock. But with the replacement of some positions, difficulties may arise: the supply of chilled Atlantic salmon, frozen tuna, as well as some types of frozen fish “will be problematic to replace,” the Pollock Association notes.
WARPE President German Zverev urges not to dramatize the situation: there are no grounds for a “multiple reduction in supply” for Atlantic salmon. According to him, “unfriendly countries” account for less than 25 thousand tons of such salmon supplies, that is, about a quarter of imports. In addition, over the past five years, salmon production in Russia has almost tripled and reached 137 thousand tons in 2021, recalls Zverev. Difficulties, according to him, may arise with the replacement of those types of fish that are not harvested and not grown by Russian enterprises due to natural conditions. We are talking about some premium types of fish and seafood, for example, these are certain types of tuna, sea bass, lobsters, cuttlefish, etc.
Rosrybolovstvo has proposed subsidies for the transportation of salmon from the Far East
But restaurateurs, who, due to the instability of the exchange rate and the rupture of supply chains, have already faced the fact that the price of imported salmon has risen and it has “virtually disappeared”, will not be able to replace it with domestic – today it is “technically impossible”, the founder told RBC restaurants “Meat & Fish” Sergey Mironov. “Pumpkin salmon, which is in the freezers, is not suitable here. Chilean salmon can be replaced by three types: it is chinook – king salmon, large sockeye salmon and large coho salmon, which can be put on steaks, ”explains the restaurateur.
The problem, according to Mironov, is due to the fact that large species of Russian salmon are caught only once a year and almost all of them are immediately exported – now all this fish is sold: “This salmon is caught from July to September. After they are caught, the best specimens go to Asia, it practically does not remain in Russia. This fish goes to the Russian market according to the leftover principle: broken salmon, low-quality or small.
To buy Russian fish, you have to go to Kamchatka, negotiate with fishermen, organize the most complicated logistics to Moscow, place it in freezers and keep it for a long time: an ordinary restaurant that makes an order to a supplier and the next day they bring fish to him will not do this, notes Mironov. In his opinion, in order to solve the problem, we must first develop import substitution – build supply chains and encourage fishermen to sell to the domestic market.