In 1961, when the Cold War was reaching its peak, Finnish Foreign Minister and former Prime Minister Rolf Torngren tried to explain his country’s policy of neutrality to the rest of the world. “For some,” he acknowledged, “the existence of an independent neutral state, a Western democracy, alongside the Soviet Unionmaintaining his freedom in friendship with his powerful neighbor, and not in defiance of him, seems in a paradox.”
Fifty years later, Finnish neutrality is once again being questioned, but this time by the Finns themselves. The Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered a unprecedented change in public opinion in Finland and neighboring Sweden. Efforts to secure NATO protection from Russian expansionism may increase the risk facing both Nordic countries.
“For the first time, the majority of the population of Finland indicates that they are in favor of NATO membership,” said Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto. “And of course it has become obvious that the political parties have started their discussions about the security situation and how it affects Finland’s position regarding NATO.”
Glacis
As a border area between East and West, Finland’s neutrality dates back to the end of World War II. In 1948, he signed a treaty with Moscow promising not join NATO, nor the Warsaw Pact led by the Soviets.
And although from the 1970s it began to strengthen alliances with the West, joining the European Union in 1995, its support for NATO never materialized. Public opinion was overwhelmingly in favor (over 70%) of staying neutral, as was Sweden. But that proportion began to decline sharply earlier this year, when Russian threats to Ukraine, accompanied by potentially suspicious activities around the Baltic Sea (drones flying at night over sensitive sites in and around Stockholm, and a Russian cargo plane taking an unexpected detour over southern Finland), increased.
Surveys conducted by Finnish and Swedish newspapers after the outbreak of the war showed historical support of 51% in Sweden and 53% in Finlandin favor of joining NATO.
Two Finnish citizens’ initiatives -with the statutory 50,000 signatures- called for a referendum on NATO, and for President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister sanna marinbring a proposal for accession to Parliament.
Matti Muukkonen, professor of law at the University of Eastern Finland, is one of the authors of the second initiative. “Russia is working ruthlessly to create a buffer between itself and NATO. But Finland must do everything possible to safeguard our sovereignty”, he explained.
Context
Finland was part of the Russian Empire from 1808 to 1917, and lost territory to the Soviet Union in the Winter War of 1939. With this context, the country is alert to the potential threat posed by its powerful neighbor to the east.
“Russia doesn’t see things from one country at a time,” added Mika Aaltola, director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. “Vladimir Putin is using Ukraine to demonstrate his power, to that everyone in the region understands that if the security of Russia is not guaranteed, the security of no one is guaranteed”, remarked the international analyst.
Russian Foreign Minister’s spokeswoman Maria Zakharova appeared to reinforce that message explicitly to the two Nordic countries the day after the Ukraine invasion. “It is obvious”, she threatened at a press conference in Moscow, “that if Finland and Sweden join NATOwhich is first and foremost a military organization, will have serious military-political consequences, which will require retaliation by the Russian Federation.”
Some point out that the war has already begun: the systems of Finland’s largest banks were the target of a massive attack aimed at blocking the digital signatures used to vote in the referendum. And on March 16, the Russian embassy in Finland asked Russians there to report “cases of violation of rights, discrimination and hate speech against citizens of the Russian Federation and native speakers of the Russian language to the consular department of the embassy by email.” The same type of incidents used by Russia to justify the invasion of Ukraine.
Instability
Finally, the Finnish government is also concerned that Belarus, a Russian ally, may be planning to flood its border with immigrants, a tactic that was employed last summer when Alexander Lukashenko allowed tens of thousands of immigrants from Iraqi Kurdistan to cross the borders of the European Union.
These types of events have convinced a sector of the government that it is time to act: “Russia is sunk in the mud of Ukraine,” they explain. “She has concentrated a large part of her forces there, it is the best time to join this situation,” they added.
Abandoning their neutrality, both the Swedish and Finnish governments have already sent arms to help the troops of Volodymyr Zelensky. and although sanna marin has been more open to exploring joining NATO than her Swedish counterpart, Magdalena Andersson, who insisted that neither she nor President Sauli Niinisto have made progress in negotiations, both governments are promoting debate today.
“We must focus on what steps can be taken to stop this very unjust war against Ukraine. As for what is happening now in Sweden and Finland, it is a long-term problem that requires more analysis and more discussion,” said Niinisto, postponing a decision that for a large part of the Finnish people, frightened by Vladimir Putin and its threats, it seems urgent.
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