Macron, with 27.8% in the first round, has raised his 2017 vote share almost twice that of Marine Le Pen (23.2%). But then Macron was already celebrating his victory and ended up winning in the second round by 66% against 34%. A monumental beating.
Nevertheless, on Sunday night Marine Le Pen was combative while Macron seemed restless. Why? The quick polls on the second round say that Macron will win only with 51% against 49% or with 54%-46%. Very tight and nothing to do with 2017. The reason is that the voters of the other eight candidates they may be more inclined to vote against Macron. Why?
As it happened -less- in 2017, the dividing axis is no longer left versus right. The proof is that the great parties of the right (De Gaulle, Chirac, Sarkozy) and that of the left (Mitterrand), dominant since 1958, now only hold 7% of the votes together.
The electorate has basically split in three. On one side, the Europeanist and internationalist French (more qualified and with better income) who have voted mostly for Macron (27.6%). On the other, the nationalist, protectionist and resistant to immigration and Europe (with lower income) who have done so for Le Pen (23.2%). And there is another third France (22%) that has voted for Mélenchon. They are also against globalization (and with less income), but very reluctant to the extreme right because they are on the left.
The great unknown is how Mélenchon’s votes and those of the other seven candidates will be distributed in the second round, in 15 days. If we add to Macron the votes of the candidates of the moderate right (Pécresse), environmentalists (Jadot), socialists (Hidalgo) and communists (Roussel), who have already promised him support, we reach 41.3%. On the contrary, if we add to those of Le Pen the 7.1% of Éric Zemmour (more on the extreme right) and those of two radical right-wing candidates, we arrive at 35.5%. If everything were like this, Macron would have victory at hand.
But not all of the 4.8% of the conservative Pécresse, nor the 2.3% of the communist Roussel, will vote for Macron.
What will the voters of Mélenchon do?
Y the biggest doubt it is among those who have voted for La Francia Insumisa de Mélenchon, a mixture of left-wing socialists (he was Jospin’s minister) and Podemos who spends vacations in Venezuela. melenchon is very contrary to Macron (whom he calls conservative), but it is constitutionally opposed to the extreme right. That is why on Sunday he repeated three times: “Not a vote for Marine Le Pen”. Will your voters listen to you? According to the polls, many will abstain, others will vote for Macron with their noses covered and a third will vote for Le Pen to protest against globalization and the cost of living.
The most logical thing is that Macron wins with a narrow victory, but it is not guaranteed. There are those who say that the real division is between the French pro-Europeans and those opposed to globalization (be they Le Pen or Mélenchon). In that case, Macron could keep 41% and Marine Le Pen could add to her sum (35%) Mélenchon’s 22% and thus reach 57% of the votes.
Related news
It’s totally impossible, but it’s Macron’s great nightmare. After a pragmatic administration without complexes, it now needs to attract a part of the anti-capitalist radicals. Or that they prefer Marine Le Pen, whose campaign this time has been much more populist than far right.
It will be 15 days of heart attack. And if Le Pen were to win, the consequences for Europe would be catastrophic. Much worse than Brexit.