Feijóo caresses the absolute majority with Vox in the final sprint of the campaign

Five years after losing power due to a vote of no confidence, the PP is advancing towards the reconquest of Moncloa and is in a position to put an end to the ‘Sánchez era’. One week to general elections, Alberto Núñez Feijóo He rubs the absolute majority with his fingertips if, as has just happened in the Valencian Community and Extremadura, he accepts the votes of the extreme right of Vox to be sworn in as president. The last poll of the Cabinet of Social Studies and Public Opinion (GESOP) for Prensa Ibérica before 23-J leaves the sum of the right-wing bloc in a fork of 170-178 seatswith 176 being the absolute majority threshold, while the PSOE and Sumar continue to lag far behind and would be left with 141-148 deputies.

The photograph that reflects the GESOP just before the final sprint of the campaign has hardly changed compared to the one that was shown at the beginning of June, after the political turnaround that caused the regional and municipal elections. In other words, the pre-campaign and the first week of the campaign, marked by a face-to-face debate that was adverse to Pedro Sanchez, have consolidated the advantage of the PP over the PSOE, which is now 3.2 points, one tenth more than in June. Feijóo would win the elections with the 30.6% of the votes and 126-130 seats (now 89), while Sánchez would get the 27.4% of the votes and 104-108 deputies (today it has 120). Since the call for the generals, the popular have dropped one tenth and two seats, and the Socialists have fallen two tenths and two deputies.

The field work of the survey coincided with the middle of the electoral campaign: the from July 13 to 15 from between 300 and 400 daily interviews, so the survey sample is between 900 and 1,200 people. The hangover of the face-to-face Sánchez-Feijóo, the 7-person debate between the parliamentary spokesmen and the PP’s strategy of questioning the management of voting by mail were hot topics when the study was carried out, which does record a slight growth in voters. potential partners of PSOE and PP. In his particular fight for the bronze medal, vox and Add they are separated by just six tenths in favor of the ultras, twice as many as at the beginning of June.

Santiago Abascal would achieve the fifteen% of the votes and 44-48 seats (now 52), while Yolanda Díaz would get the 14.4% of the ballots and 37-40 deputies (Today he is 38). Since the generals were called, the extreme right has improved four tenths and three seats, and the left-wing coalition has added two deputies despite falling half a point in estimated vote. For its part, the Catalan independence movement would regress as a whole in a 23-J that will experience a new pulse between ERC and Junts: the Republicans are positioned with 8-9 seats (they now have 13) and the post-convergents, with 7-8 deputies (today they have 8), seeing both probably surpassed by the PSC.

This being the case, what will the absolute conservative majority depend on? Does Sánchez have room to come back in a week? The undecided They are usually the key to the balance, but the survey reflects a much lower percentage than usual in previous calls. Two out of 10 voters do not yet know which ballot they will choose, but in all electorates, the percentage of uncertainty is already below 20%, even in the parties of the left. That mark of undecided is only surpassed among voters of together (39.7%) and those of citizens (30.7%), so it is the latter who could prop up the majority of PP and Vox or give oxygen to the PSOE.

Equally or more crucial for the electoral outcome may be the ability of the Socialists to stop the vote leak who continue to suffer towards the PP. It is less than at the beginning of June, but still today the 7% of those who voted for Sánchez in 2019 would now support Feijóo. And near the 6% of PSOE voters would migrate to Sumar, a loss it makes up for by attracting 13% of voters of the coalition that integrates Podemos, to the same percentage of supporters of the GNP and to 12% of voters of CKD. In turn, Sumar’s main source of votes is also Esquerra, whose fifteen% of their voters would choose the Díaz ballot, which explains why the Republicans have redoubled their attacks on the new brand this campaign.

He conservative vote It appears much more compact within its block. Feijóo absorbs half of the ex-voters of Citizens and 16% of Vox voters, but one in 10 PP voters would now switch to the ultras. The only relevant transfer from right to left is the 10% of Cs voters who would now support the PSOE. In a Catalan key, to the aforementioned losses of CKD towards Díaz and Sánchez we must add that together I would snatch the 14% of their voters, which explains the sharp fall of the Republicans and the good resistance of JxCat in the poll.

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All in all, the poll provides the left with two data to cling to in this last week of the electoral race. The perception that the PP will rise with the victory (59%) has fallen 9.5 points since the beginning of June, while the expectation that the PSOE will win (18.7%) has improved four points. In addition, Sánchez is once again the preferred as Prime Minister (29.3%), three points ahead of Feijóo (26.4%). The socialist candidate has gained four points in a month and a half, but the popular one has also risen, one and a half points.

The avalanche of voting by mail suggests that the turnout at the polls It will be high despite having to vote in the heat of heat. According to the GESOP, 82% of voters say they will vote on 23-J, five points more than when the elections were called. And it is that for two out of three Spaniards (64.8%), the elections next Sunday are very important.