The fear of high inflation on the one hand and of an economic recession on the other has caused the mood of German consumers to sink for the first time since last autumn. The consumer research company GfK found in its study on consumer climate presented on Wednesday that expectations regarding income and the economy in particular have recently fallen again. The Nuremberg scientists present their findings on consumption in Germany in a monthly study.
The consumer climate index for July fell to minus 25.4 points, the statement said. The value determined for June is a revised minus 24.4 (previously minus 24.2) points. Analysts were surprised by the development. On average, they had expected an index value of minus 23.0 points.
“The current development of consumer sentiment indicates that consumers are again becoming more insecure,” said GfK consumer expert Rolf Bürkl. “This is reflected, among other things, in the fact that the propensity to save is increasing again this month,” he emphasized. In each of the past eight months, the consumer climate had risen slightly.
“Continued high inflation rates of currently around six percent are nipping at the purchasing power of households and are preventing private consumption from making a positive contribution,” said Bürkl. The current discussion about the heating law is also a pity because it slows down investments elsewhere. However, inflation is on the way back. This could become a bright spot for the coming months.
Private households assumed that they would have to accept real income losses this year in view of persistently high inflation. The assumption is that these will probably not be fully offset by collectively agreed wage and salary increases. In addition, there is a significantly increased pessimism regarding the economy. The strong interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank underpinned the uncertainty. People are afraid that the high interest rates will stifle investments and that Germany will slide into a recession.
GfK surveys around 2,000 people every month for the study. The results are an excerpt from the GfK consumer climate MAXX study commissioned by the EU Commission. (dpa)