The new round of violence between Israel and the Palestinians has also taken the American government completely by surprise. Hamas’s surprise attack and the Israeli response are a harsh, potentially fatal blow to President Joe Biden’s plan to broker a broad deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. As long as violence rages, the Democrat can forget this spearhead of his foreign policy.
After months of cautious diplomacy in the Middle East, the White House was forced into crisis mode on Saturday. Together with his foreign and defense secretary, Biden called several key players in the region. In the evening, the president gave a short TV address in which he stated that the US stands “firmly” behind Israel and will help the country defend itself against the “terrorist” violence of Hamas.
The outbreak of war could also have domestic political consequences for Biden. At the end of his term, his predecessor Donald Trump (also his possible challenger in the presidential elections of November 2024) managed to conclude the so-called Abraham Accords between Israel on the one hand and Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates on the other, after intensive mediation by his son-in-law Jared Kushner. Agreements were also reached between Israel and Morocco and Sudan.
Also read this analysis on the reactions in the Middle East
Since Biden took office at the beginning of 2021, he has been pushing for an even more ambitious follow-up: America’s two most powerful allies in the region should also normalize relations. If he could reconcile sworn enemies Israel and Saudi Arabia, Biden would surpass his predecessor’s most tangible diplomatic achievement. And Washington was able to further contain its own archenemy in the region (Iran).
Iran would be a major culprit
Republicans already accused Biden of not being pro-Israel enough because he does not have a very warm relationship with Prime Minister Netanyahu. After the new explosion of violence, they completely blame him because the Middle East was in much safer hands with Trump.
The ex-president himself linked the recent prisoner exchange between Iran and the US in a post on social media on Saturday. To make this possible, the US, among other things, made 6 billion dollars in frozen Iranian assets available to Tehran in a roundabout way. They have not yet withdrawn a cent, but according to Trump, the latest Hamas attacks were “financed with American taxpayers’ dollars.”
Trump’s former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, who is challenging her former boss in the Republican primary race for the presidential candidacy, also pointed to the hostage deal with Iran. She stated in conversation with Fox News that “Iran, Russia and China are all sticking together, all three of them. We know that. And what you have to do about that is be powerful. And you are not powerful by giving them 6 billion.”
In the same TV interview, Haley also addressed the increasing asylum pressure at the American southern border with Mexico. Just as Israel must guard its own borders to be safe, so too does the US itself, she said. “We are waiting for a new September 11.”
Threat missed
An anonymous high official, quoted on Sunday in The Washington Post, acknowledged that the government was surprised by the violence from Gaza. The US reportedly watched the rising tension in the West Bank with concern, but saw “no specific threat or indication” of a Hamas attack “of this high level.”
The fact that the US did not see the attack coming can be attributed to Biden in the near future. Last month said his National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan still that “the Middle East is calmer today than it has been in two decades.” A video clip of that statement was immediately shared online by the Republican Party this weekend. In addition, the reservation that Sullivan made about that comment had been slyly removed. “For now then, I must emphasize, because everything can change.”