Experts called the options for the development of the operation in Ukraine

According to Russian Ministry of Defense, the LPR grouping in the area of ​​​​the settlement of Stepovoye, despite the “fierce resistance of the nationalist battalions”, advanced one more kilometer. As a result of the strikes of the Russian Armed Forces, 74 ground objects of the military infrastructure of Ukraine were put out of action, including 11 airfields of the air force, three command posts, a base point for the naval forces of Ukraine, as well as 18 radar stations of anti-aircraft missile systems of air defense S- 300 and Buk-M1; a combat helicopter and four Bayraktar TB-2 attack unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down.

In the Russian Aerospace Forces, a Su-25 attack aircraft crashed as a result of a piloting error. The pilot ejected and is at the location of his military unit.

Konashenkov stressed that the Russian Armed Forces do not strike either on Ukrainian cities or on social facilities in military garrisons.

The President of Russia and the Ministry of Defense did not comment on the scale and timing of the completion of the operation on Thursday.

There are three scenarios according to which events could develop, says Igor Nikolaychuk, head of the Regional Security Problems Sector of the Center for Euro-Atlantic and Defense Studies of the RISS. In his opinion, the minimum program of the Russian operation is to reach the borders of the proclaimed republics (that is, the borders of the Luhansk and Donetsk administrative regions) and stop there. The second scenario is to achieve the resumption of water supply through the North Crimean Canal (and this really happened by the evening of February 24) and restore direct rail communication between Russia and Crimea. “This is no longer on the territory of Donbass. The next very understandable strategic issue is to restore direct railway communication with Crimea, which, even if it devalues ​​the value of the Crimean bridge, will allow this republic to breathe in peace,” Nikolaychuk explained.

The third scenario is to move even further so that the Sea of ​​Azov becomes an inland sea of ​​Russia. “The question arises about Kharkov,” the expert added. Nikolaychuk noted that, according to the estimates of the analytical company Stratfor, it will take Russia about 20 days to occupy the territory up to the right bank of the Dnieper and, most importantly, to establish control over seven bridges across it. And also Kiev. Go to the other side of the Dnieper – and after that conduct political bargaining, ”concluded the expert. Russian tank troops are concentrated in the south of Belarus, Nikolaichuk recalled, and Minsk does not interfere at all in Moscow’s special operation.

The actions of the Russian troops in the Donbass look quite planned, Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), told RBC. He noted that Ukraine has a limited number of combat-ready, well-armed troops, they are concentrated mainly in the Donbass. “Now they are bound by battle, as the troops of the people’s republics are advancing on them. At this time, Russian troops enter relatively easily and quickly from several other directions at once, which are not covered, ”Kashin said. If the Russian Armed Forces really suppressed the air defense system (air defense) of Ukraine and destroyed the Ukrainian Air Force, then the group in Donbass will be surrounded and neutralized in the future, the expert concluded.

At the same time, Ukraine’s military infrastructure is being hit – one that is relevant to Ukrainian defensive efforts at this stage, and one that Russia would like to eliminate in Ukraine as part of the announced demilitarization, Kashin notes. Among the objects that the troops of the DPR and LPR, together with the Russian military, should take control, obviously, are airfields, air defense systems objects – that is, radar stations, known places of deployment of anti-aircraft missile systems, large communication centers, command posts, weapons depots, Kashin believes. The primary goal is to suppress air defenses, disorganize control systems, gain air supremacy, limit the enemy’s ability to maneuver troops, and then conduct a ground operation, the expert explained.

“The words of the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov “to cleanse Ukraine of the Nazis” can be interpreted in only one sense: this means that the entire territory of Ukraine will be occupied, and obviously the political regime will be changed there,” Kashin concluded. In his opinion, the elimination of the resistance of the Ukrainian regular troops is, at worst, a matter of the week. After that, the question of occupying territories will arise and, hypothetically, the start of a guerrilla war, the expert believes.

A special military operation in Ukraine will be an order of magnitude larger and more expensive than the Syrian one, Kashin is sure. In his opinion, appropriate amendments were made to the Russian budget, the costs of the operation were included in hidden budget items, he suggests.

The total secret spending of the federal budget in 2021 amounted to 3.75 trillion rubles, or 15% of total spending. Including in the “Armed Forces” subsection, expenses for 1.58 trillion rubles were classified.

“That is, this is a major military effort, which, in terms of costs, can reach tenths of a percent or even one percent of Russian GDP,” Kashin concluded.

In March 2016, a little more than six months after the start of operations of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syria, Vladimir Putin saidthat this operation cost the budget 33 billion rubles. These funds were planned in the budget of the Ministry of Defense for exercises and combat training. The operation lasted almost three years.

On the first day of the operation, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky made several appeals. On the night of February 24, he addressed both Ukrainians and Russians. “Our main goal is peace in Ukraine and the security of our citizens. To do this, we are ready to talk about it with everyone, including you. In different formats and on any platforms,” he said in Russian (quote on the Telegram channel of the President of Ukraine). Later in the morning, in a brief address, he declared that an attack on Ukraine was an attack on the entire democratic world. Then, at a briefing, Zelensky said that martial law had been introduced in the country, and diplomatic relations with Russia had been severed, the police would issue weapons to veterans of the internal affairs bodies under a simplified procedure. Zelensky said he was ready to lift the previously imposed sanctions against Ukrainians if they were ready to join the territorial defense units and take up arms (many politicians are under sanctions in Ukraine, including the godfather of the Russian President Vladimir Medvedchuk).

The United States, the EU countries and their allies on Thursday mostly supported Ukraine, but did not come up with concrete proposals to help it. The announcement of new sanctions against Russia took place in the evening.

After Russia launched a military operation in Ukraine, the White House released a statement by US President Joe Biden in which he stressed that President Putin chose a deliberate war. “Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive manner. The world will hold Russia to account,” Biden said.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on his Twitter page called on Russia to immediately stop hostilities and added that Berlin would coordinate its response within the G7, NATO and the EU. “The Russian attack on Ukraine is a flagrant violation of international law. Nothing can justify it. Germany strongly condemns this reckless act of President Putin. Our solidarity with Ukraine and its people,” wrote Scholz. Later, he also announced that the European Union would adopt new sanctions against Russia as early as Thursday, and called the Russian military operation a “big mistake.”

Together with French President Emmanuel Macron, Scholz called for the convening of a summit of NATO member countries. macron also urged Russia to immediately end the military operation and condemned Russia’s decision to start a war with Ukraine. “France is in solidarity with Ukraine. She supports the Ukrainians and is working with her partners and allies to end the war,” Macron wrote. The French leader also convened the Defense and Security Council in Paris.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has held meetings with the leadership of British banks, regulators and trade unions to discuss the possibility of strengthening financial sanctions against Russia. “He made clear that if the crisis escalated, tougher sanctions would follow to help stop Putin’s destructive course of action in Ukraine,” Downing Street said in a circulated statement. Johnson also made an appeal to the nation, in which he doubted that the Russians support the decision to launch a military operation in Ukraine. According to him, the West needs to end its dependence on Russian oil and gas.

The leaders of the EU member states held a summit on February 24 to agree on and adopt new sanctions against Russia. Czech President Milos Zeman called on the countries of the union to resort to a tougher option than previously planned and disconnect the country from the SWIFT settlement system. In turn, the Belgian Secretary of State for Migration and Asylum, Sammi Mahdi, took the initiative to stop issuing Schengen visas to Russians, with the exception of those issued for humanitarian reasons. “At the moment, Russians are not welcome here, a general ban on [выдачу] visas to Russians should not be taboo,” Mahdi said. The EU declined to comment on this initiative. According to Macron, the upcoming sanctions will affect the political, financial and energy sectors of Russia. Scholz also promised that the new sanctions package, which the EU will adopt in coordination with the US, will largely close Russia’s access to international financial markets.

At the same time, Western countries ruled out a war with Russia on the side of Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters at a press briefing that the alliance has no plans to send troops to Ukraine. “There are no NATO troops in Ukraine. We said that we have no plans or intentions to deploy troops in Ukraine,” he said. At the same time, Stoltenberg announced the readiness of the alliance to protect its members and further strengthen NATO’s eastern flank.

The day before the start of the Russian military operation, French government spokesman Gabriel Attal said France would not use military force to defend Ukraine. “We have already spoken clearly about the possible invasion of Ukraine and our assistance, and I want to say that the answer is no.” Biden also refused to deploy US troops in Ukraine. “We will not send our troops to fight in Ukraine, but we will continue to support Ukraine and its people,” Biden said during a Feb. 19 address to the nation.

“Russia’s unjust military invasion of Ukraine violates the principles of the UN Charter and will cause a humanitarian crisis in Ukraine,” Alan Kafruni, professor of international relations at Hamilton College, told RBC. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the culmination of years of NATO’s eastward push, its illegal and unprovoked attacks on Serbia, and the illegal US attacks on Iraq and Libya, which have resulted in millions of deaths, he said. “The United States and NATO have failed to respond to Russia’s legitimate security concerns stemming from these actions. Russia must heed the call of UN Secretary General António Guterres to return troops to Russia, and all parties must return to diplomacy. At the same time, NATO allies must understand that sanctions rarely achieve their stated goals. The introduction of crippling sanctions will not contribute to a diplomatic solution, but will only harm the Russian people,” he concluded.