Expert on Carlsen evidence: ‘99.99 percent is not enough’

Chess world champion Magnus Carlsen has publicly accused US grandmaster Hans Niemann of cheating, but the Norwegian has not yet provided any solid evidence of his suspicions. But that is exactly what he will have to do if he wants to convince the world association FIDE of Niemann’s guilt.

Magnus Carlsen is adamant that Hans Niemann has cheated in the past. Not only in the two cases that the 19-year-old publicly admitted, but also in the recent past and more frequently, as the Norwegian wrote in his statement a few days ago.

He would like to say more on the subject, explained Carlsen, but he could not do so without Niemann’s permission, the superstar hinted that a legal dispute between the parties may have long since broken out behind the scenes.



It is not known whether Carlsen has already presented the world association with concrete evidence of further fraud by his opponent. However, FIDE referee Greg Keener considers this to be absolutely necessary. Not only to further incriminate Niemann, but also so that Carlsen can give substance to his thesis.

FIDE regulations are designed to make it difficult for players to make unfounded complaints and false accusations, Keener said in a New York Times article. “If players raise allegations of cheating without strong evidence, they can even be penalized,” explained the FIDE referee, who spoke of an “extremely high bar for proving cheating”.

Exactly how high is this bar? “The minimum standard that FIDE accepts as presumptive evidence of a violation of the rules of fair play is a 99.998 percent chance that the person actually cheated. In other words, 99.99 percent is not enough,” explained David Hater, another renowned referee of the world association.

As soon as someone like Carlsen makes allegations of cheating against another player, “he should be sure that he has good evidence,” added Hater. Whether Carlsen actually has this evidence remains unclear. Also, where the Norwegian could get this evidence from, can only be speculated.



Quite a few believe that the world champion got an insight into the “chess.com” databases and analyzed Niemann’s games with the help of the company’s cheating software. But Chief Chess Officer Daniel Rensch has already denied these rumors, stating: “Nobody, not even Magnus, saw our systems.”

The superstar based his allegations “100 percent” on his own information: “I don’t know where he got it from,” Rensch wrote.

As of today, Carlsen has the backing of the scene and the public, even without any evidence presented. Niemann’s meteoric rise is too suspicious, his connection too close to a convicted fraudstertoo large the number of his “perfect” games.

“When Mr Niemann isn’t cheating, the extent of his achievement is truly astounding. Sometimes his play is so precise it leaves spectators and opponents alike speechless. Maybe he’s already the best player in the world. But when Mr Niemann cheated, then he is the damage he did to the game,” Keener said in his column, describing the quandary the sport has been in for almost four weeks now. And an end to the spectacle is far from in sight.

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