Just before they reached Moscow, Prigozhin promised that his Wagner troops would still withdraw. Hans van Koningsbrugge, Professor of Russian History and Politics at the University of Groningen, is following everything closely. “What concession is Putin making to Prigozhin now?”
Yevgeny Prigozhin is the boss of the mercenary army of the Wagner Group. He rebels because his men in Ukraine were allegedly attacked by Russian air forces and many of his men were killed.
The Wagner group made good progress on Saturday, but they are going back to their base in the South to avoid blood loss.
“It is a day with events that move so fast that you cannot make them up. Everyone is surprised. Prigozhin is now withdrawing his troops after mediation by Lukashenko, the dictator of Belarus. But I say take a look first. Because Putin has called Prigozhin a traitor and he will not take that back. That’s how you get an armed peace. That is now the most useful thing for Putin, who is gaining time to think about how to proceed. Because now that Prigozhin has made a concession, he now expects something from Putin. What can or will he offer Prigozhin. Will he still sacrifice his defense minister Sergey Shoygu and army chief Valeri Gerasimov? That’s what the Wagner boss wants. But I can’t imagine Putin doing that. Because if he does, then Prigozhin has won today. Either way, this is a major blow to Putin’s authority and a huge blow to the Russian side.”
What do you expect to happen today?
The big question was who was going to defend Moscow against the advancing Wagner troops. Prigozhin’s mercenaries were 1.5 hours from Moscow. The police? Isn’t he trained for it? The Rosgvardia, the National Guard? I don’t see that either. I’m not going anywhere after the events of this Saturday. Let’s see how things are in Russia on Sunday.”
Can Putin still bring Russian army soldiers from the front to Moscow?
“No, Moscow cannot now withdraw troops from the occupied Ukrainian territories. Besides, it’s way too late for that. What is happening now is that additional troops are being flown into Moscow from everywhere else in Russia. Apparently they think the same as I do: first see what happens, only then believe. Moreover. I think Prigozhin has been thinking about this for months. He is a good organizer and it seems that this has been well prepared and that he has also planned how and where to get petrol and diesel en route to be able to drive to Moscow.”
What strikes me is that there are no major pro-Putin manifestations. How is that possible? They often organize that well.
“No, there have not yet been major pro-Putin demonstrations. And whether they will come is the question. Putin himself fled the capital and moved to Saint Petersburg, located much to the north. That is not exactly a recommendation to support your leader.”
Does he actually get support from others?
,,Not much. You see that the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has come to the aid of Putin. His troops are on their way to Rostov-on-Don, which is held by Wagner mercenaries. And furthermore, the African country of Uganda has offered Putin protection. Kazakhstan is no longer really an ally of Putin. We do not know what Putin has agreed with Lukashenko, the friendly dictator of Belarus. But China is silent. Everyone is waiting to see what will happen and, above all, what will happen in Moscow.”
But not everyone is keeping quiet now, right?
No. I have heard from a good Russian source that riots have broken out in many prisons. Prisoners want to join Prigozhin’s army. And what you now also read and see remarkably often via Russian social media is that opponents of the regime dare to speak up again. They now see opportunities that more democracy can be achieved if the government of dictator Putin is overthrown. Today they are already calling for regime change in Russia much more openly. It creaks everywhere, there is unrest everywhere.”
Where else do you notice that?
Also in Rostov-on-Don, which is in the hands of Prigozhin’s mercenary army. The train station is crowded. Civilians are trying to flee the city, fearing fighting between Kadyrov’s and Wagner’s troops. Where they can or want to go? Perhaps in the direction of Eastern Siberia? It’s still quiet there.”
A Ukrainian refugee in the Netherlands on Saturday compared the situation to that of Tsar Nicholas II.
“Tsar Nicholas II? Good comparison. He was commander-in-chief of the army that supported him for a long time. Until a popular uprising broke out in Saint Petersburg on February 23, 1917 and his guard sided with the insurgents. My first thought this morning was the collapse of Russia after the February Revolution in 1917. But that was a popular uprising. This is more like the 1991 coup against Mikhail Gorbachev. That, too, was an action by the Kremlin elite. And this rebellion also comes from an insider, Prigozhin.”
Speaking of him, Putin did speak of him as a traitor but did not mention his name once in his TV speech.
Wagner boss gets his way: top of Defense is replaced
Russian media report that, among others, the Minister of Defense, Sergey Shoygu, and Chief of the General Staff, Valeri Gerasimov, should leave the field. With this, the most important demand of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin has been granted.
That would mean that Putin, who spoke strong language earlier in the day and called Prigozhin a traitor, has come around. The Wagner boss said this afternoon that they are not traitors at all, but true patriots.
“Putin never calls Navalny, his biggest political opponent so far, by his name either. He describes him and Prigozhin as phenomena that threaten the security of the Russian state. The fact that he did not mention Prigozhin in his TV speech to the people on Saturday morning also shows how angry he is. The present tsar feels too good and too lofty to speak the name of such a traitor. But Putin can hardly keep that up. He will not be able to warn the people against an army of some kind of dangerous ghost without a name.”