The political parties that attend this Sunday at the regional elections in Castilla y León will be played the distribution of a total of 81 attorneys with the ‘ceiling’ of 53 seats that the PP achieved in the 2011 elections and the 41 that the PSOE achieved in the first elections of 1983. For its part, the ‘floor’ for the popular is in the 29 seats of the last elections, those of May 2019, while for the Socialists it is in the 25 of the ninth legislature, that of the 2015 elections.
Castilla y León is the community that has been governed by the PP for the longest time and, consequently, it is the autonomy that has been in the hands of the PSOE for the fewest years. In fact, the Socialists only managed to govern in the first legislature, from 1983 to 1987. Jose Maria Aznar then inaugurated an era of popular hegemony that has lasted 35 years, although in the last regional elections, those of 2019, it was the PSOE that won the victory, which, however, was insufficient to be able to unseat the right of the Junta .
The company GAD3 prepares this Sunday a poll at the foot of the urn for ‘Abc’ and the COPE that will be announced at the closing of the polling stations, at 8:00 p.m.. The average of all the polls published since the elections were called, on December 20, until Monday, February 7, the last legal day to disseminate opinion polls, showed a comfortable 5-point advantage for the PP over the PSOE after the first week of the campaign, in which the chaotic outcome of the labor reform in Congress was fully impacted.
However, the prediction market Predi, which allows knowing the evolution of the estimate of seats until election day itself, draws a much tighter scenario after the decline suffered by the PP during the final stretch of the campaign. 24 hours before the polls opened, the PP was 11 seats behind the absolute majority (set at 41 attorneys) and the candidate Alfonso Fernandez Manueco I would need Vox to revalidate the presidency of the Junta de Castilla y León. But that right-wing majority begins to falter, since popular and ultras added 42 deputies, when at the beginning of the series of predictions they reached 45.
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The electoral train that is underway, now passing through Castile and Leonyou will have your next stop at Andalusiaa community in which a pre-electoral environment is already lived that will continue for the next few months until the president of the Board, Juanma Moreno (PP), decide to press the button. The two wings of the coalition government, PP and Cs, which in Andalusia remain seamlessly united, insist on disassociating the result that occurs in Castilla y León from the decision to advance or not the elections, which corresponds exclusively to Moreno.