Evacuations and aid for Mariupol as the city almost fell

The most disastrous battlefield in the war against Ukraine, in and around the city of Mariupol, has reached a new phase. It is gradually getting better and better to evacuate Mariupol residents from the war zone. Seventeen buses left on Thursday morning of the Red Cross elsewhere from Ukraine to the port city. The intention is that they Friday driving back with evacuees† A further 28 buses will be asked for permission to pass the Russian checkpoint. The Red Cross uses the same route to provide resources to the city.

More than a signal that human lives are now being considered, the agreement is a sign of the changed relations in southeastern Ukraine. The Russian capture of Mariupol now seems inevitable. As a result, more can now be evacuated. “The city will most likely fall within a few days,” to conclude researchers at the Institute for the Study of War Wednesday. Sunday already said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that soldiers could leave the city if they saw a chance to survive: “I understand what it looks like for the armed forces.” The Azov regiment, part of the Ukrainian National Guard that helps defend the city, has declined the offer. Two non-adjacent areas of the city are still being defended by an unknown number of Ukrainian soldiers.

It means that Russia has almost won its biggest prize yet on Ukrainian soil: the coveted and strategically located port city on the Sea of ​​Azov. Along the coast, the Russian army has also conquered a strip of land about 60 kilometers wide. There can therefore be no question of a quick recapture by Ukrainian troops. From the sea it is just as difficult: access to the inland sea is completely in Russian hands.

Without betraying position

The Russian troops freely share videos of them checking neighborhoods for civilians or military personnel. “Are there peaceful people here? Living? Show yourself! Here is the Russian army”, calls a soldier up a stairwell in Mariupol. Seemingly without worrying about betraying their position. Well, as open source journalists from France24 note, often in the same neighborhoods already clearly conquered. The Azov regiment meanwhile places less and less often ‘trophies’, although they do set on wednesday to have “destroyed” “three tanks and 64 units of enemy infantry” from Russia.

The video images leaking from the city via social media are showing less and less an active war zone. On display are images of the city, shot from cars and accompanied by commentary in horror at the devastation that has been caused.

Taking Mariupol by the Russians seems inevitable: the city will fall ‘within days’

Mayor Vadym Bojchenko said 90 percent of the buildings were damaged or destroyed. Regardless of whether the Red Cross’s humanitarian corridor is successful on Friday, more and more people are managing to leave the city on their own initiative. A refugee from Mariupol described to RFE/RL how she got out of the city: “We formed a column. There were six or eight cars ahead of us… There were explosions, but we kept going. It was very scary. There was smoke. But the cars didn’t stop and we followed the car in front. That driver was very brave, kept driving and we followed him.” Another eyewitness who NRC spoke, similarly described having come from the city with a small convoy of private transport.

It is not known how many people remain in Mariupol. On Monday, Mayor Bojchenko estimated the number of civilians left behind at 160,000. President Zelensky previously spoke of about 100,000 people. Before the war, the city had about 400,000 inhabitants. Bojchenko suggested Monday that “all civilians must be evacuated to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe.” The water, gas and electricity are still cut off in the city. There is hardly any food left.

Meanwhile, people are also being evacuated to Russia. Ukraine proposes that nearly 40,000 people have been transported to an “unknown destination” without permission and speaks of “abductions”. The circumstances under which these evacuees had to leave their homes are unknown.

At least 5,000 civilians, including 200 children, were killed in the siege of Mariupol, Ukrainian authorities said. Whether this number is correct cannot be determined at this time. What is certain is that countless people are still missing. A new photo of someone looking for a loved one or relative appears every few minutes in a Ukrainian Telegram group “Find the Missing”. Almost all of them were last seen in Mariupol.

In collaboration with Laura Hoogenraad.