European Championships: Italy in fourth pot. Avoid Denmark, Türkiye, Holland and Croatia

From the gallery the show can be seen less clearly, but you can still enjoy it. Well yes, we are in the fourth and final pot on the road to Germany 2024. It was in the air after the draw with Ukraine. Croatia defeated Armenia 1-0, the goal enough to overtake. It has never happened to Italy to be so low in the European Championships or even in the World Cup. It could be the sign of a surrender, the admission of leaving the international elite, and perhaps it is exactly like that. However, it is fair to remember that in the past the seedings were often decided by political choice in controversial meetings on the eve of the draws.

amarcord

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Before 2006, with Italy in the first pot by all parameters, the uncertainty about the position in the draw remained until the last match. Blatter had the power of life and death (sports of course) over everything. For the record, in the end we were seeded. Now the systems are more scientific and democratic. Points in qualifying groups count. The result is that we are 19th out of 24. We have great margins for improvement. First band One thing seems indisputable: the value of the first band. In terms of results, team value, recent appearances in the final stages, the “big six” are objectively the best. France above all: Deschamps’ B team could compete with all the other national teams. Alongside him is Spain which has unrivaled quality, mentality and play. Immediately after, a trio: Portugal, very rich in attack regardless of CR7; England, for which the saying “if not now when” absolutely applies, considering the talents of Kane and Bellingham and the (finally) idea of ​​a team; and Germany, in one of the darkest moments, but coach Nagelsmann has the power to invent and, in addition, the advantage of playing at home. In the “group” there is also Tedesco’s Belgium: judgment suspended, in the qualifiers it is overflowing, in the final stages the limits often emerge.

second tier

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Let’s say things as they are: in the second and third tiers there are no unbeatable teams for the Azzurri, the ranking is quite fluid. However, among the “vice” seeds there is Denmark, the 2021 semi-finalist. The most threatening of a lot that includes Hungary, Albania, Austria, Romania and Turkey, none insurmountable. Perhaps Montella’s Turkey is the most technically interesting. The truth is that there was no shortage of surprises in the various qualifying groups, less obvious than in the past.

third and fourth tier

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It is more or less equivalent to the second, if not superior. World semi-finalist Croatia and the Netherlands seem to be the strongest, at least those with more tradition. Then Scotland, Slovakia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic. Within reach. Fourth band And here comes the best part. There are the reigning Azzurri champions. Crazy? Until 2016, whoever had won the last tournament was by right seeded. From 2021 the situation has changed, the privilege abolished, and Portugal had already dropped to the third tier. Not qualifying would have been not unique but rare: the last holder to miss out was France in 1988, after winning with Platini in 1984. With Italy – it’s not that bad – there are two other losers, Switzerland and Serbia, with which we historically suffer. Plus the three “X”s among which we also risked being.

playoffs

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The three “Xs” are the three winners of the Serie A, B and C playoffs among the non-qualified teams (thanks to the results in the Nations League). Complicated situation here too: tomorrow in Nyon there will be a draw not only for the venue of the final but also for the destination of Ukraine, Finland and Iceland, balanced between Serie A and Serie B. Each category qualifies one through a draw of semi-finals and finals. For now, this. A league; Poland-Estonia; Wales-one between Finland/Ukraine/Iceland. Serie B: Israel—Ukraine/Iceland; Bosnia-Finland/Ukraine. Serie C: Georgia-Luxembourg, Greece-Kazakhstan. Our favorites (trusting in a “fair” draw): Poland, Ukraine and Greece. We play in March, at least we saved ourselves this one.

first after first

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We were seeded in the Euro draws in 2021 (champions), 1988 (semi-finalists), 1980 (quarter-finalists) and 1968 (champions). In all the other editions we have always been in the second tier, except in 2000, in Belgium-Holland, where we finished in third place and were finalists defeated by the golden goal. In short, the formula for success does not exist. In the 2024 draw we arrive in 9th place in the FIFA ranking, seventh among the Europeans after France, England, Belgium, Portugal, Holland (instead of Germany) and Spain. We are first after the seeds, if we don’t want to be defeatists, this seems to be our value. In June we start again from scratch or almost. On 2 December in Hamburg (4pm) the 6 groups for the final phase in Germany will be drawn. The first two of each group plus the four “best thirds” qualify for the round of 16, drawn based on the points scored. From fourth class to business the road might not even be difficult, let’s see if the balls will give us back what they took away from us by pairing us with England.