1. How difficult is it for Member States to save 15% energy compared to the average consumption over the past five years?
The goal does not seem very difficult for the Netherlands. Gas consumption has been a third lower than normal in recent weeks. Just under 30 percent of Dutch gas consumption is for power stations. Recently, consumption in summer has been lower than in winter, thanks to the rise of solar power. In June, half of the electricity used was renewable, for the whole year the counter stands at about 30 percent, according to data from energieopwek.nl. In addition, the coal-fired power stations have been restarted. Two of them are up and running again (the third, the controversial Riverstone power station on the Maasvlakte, is under maintenance).
But the percentage of 15 is not a race. Southern countries do not like the imposed standard. A country like Portugal does not import Russian gas and may still be forced to save. Spain also gets its gas from other sources and has a lot of sustainable. Why do we suddenly have to save money?, is their defense.
The 15 percent may therefore become an EU average, with countries dependent on Russian gas having to save more than countries that do not. In that case, the Netherlands (and especially Germany) would be looking at a higher percentage.
2. Does the high gas price still affect the savings?
Since Russia cut off the gas supply to Germany via the important connection Nord Stream 1, the already high price more than doubled, from about 80 euros to 175 euros. This has an effect on demand. Families will use less gas if the central heating is switched on again in a few months: thanks to insulation and because it is expected that many people will lower their heating considerably. Energy has literally become unaffordable for many. People are already saving gas by taking shorter or no longer showers.
The industry will also shut down installations if they can no longer operate profitably. This is not without risks. One of the world’s largest fertilizer producers, Yara, warned on Tuesday of possible shortages if the supply of natural gas to Europe falls sharply. A shortage of fertilizers (a lot of natural gas is still needed for its production) affects the food supply.
3. Where is the easiest to win?
Saving energy, as shown above. Not only with gas, but also with electricity. Last week, when 43 percent of electricity came from renewable sources, one third of the electricity was still generated from gas-fired power plants. Saving electricity therefore also means saving gas. Wash on the line instead of in the dryer, no unnecessary trips with the e-car, the air conditioning on a low heat and only run the dishwasher when it is full, on the eco program. Milieu Centraal has tips to cut power consumption in half.
Many Dutch people will probably be freed from one annoyance next autumn: the patio heater. The electric version is certainly unaffordable. Few terrace owners will dare to turn on these energy-consuming outdoor air heaters when the whole country tries desperately to save energy – at least that’s the hope of some.
4. And the Groningen gas field? Does Europe say anything about that?
The European Commission sees the restart of coal-fired power stations and keeping nuclear power stations open longer as an opportunity to save gas. She does not comment on more gas extraction in Groningen: the committee is aware of how sensitive the subject is here.
It is also questionable whether Groningen can help much, because the Dutch field supplies low-calorific gas that is mainly used for heating buildings and for showering. The industry is especially eager for so-called high-calorific gas (foreign gas and the liquid variant LNG). The gas stocks with low-calorific gas are reasonably well filled, it is expected that the shortages will mainly arise in the other variant.
By already producing more gas from Groningen, a number of power stations that still run on low-calorific gas could be used more often. As a result, the power stations on high-calorific gas use less. The saved gas can then go into storage for later.
If, in a few months’ time, the need is real, and the gas stocks of low-calorific gas are full, extra Groningen capacity will make less sense. It would therefore be better – from the point of view of energy security – to start extracting more Groningen gas now. The government does not want this.
The cabinet does want to extract more gas from smaller fields in the North Sea. It was recently announced that permits for this will be issued more quickly. This gas will not solve the problems in the short term (next winter).
5. Can Europe also use the energy crisis to achieve the climate goals more quickly?
Achieving those goals will not be any easier with the firing up of coal-fired power stations throughout Northwestern Europe. The other alternative, liquefied natural gas (LNG), is also not climate-friendly, especially compared to Groningen gas. The extraction of LNG releases a lot of methane (a very strong greenhouse gas) and compressing and transporting the gas takes a lot of energy. Now Russian gas is not a climate friend either, partly because of the many methane leaks.
The question is whether Member States will use the crisis to accelerate their sustainability efforts. The possibilities for this seem limited. There are already major plans, especially for the generation of energy in the North Sea, and these plans cannot actually be implemented more quickly, due to staff shortages and shortages of raw materials. The energy transition in the Netherlands is not going well: many municipalities seem to be failing to achieve previously promised targets for the construction of solar power stations and wind farms.
For the time being, it is all hands on deck and climate and air quality targets are being pushed aside by the Commission to safeguard energy security. Later on, the climate will be discussed again. In the short term, the climate gains mainly come from additional energy savings by industry and households.
6. And nuclear energy?
On this topic, everyone is looking to Germany, which still plans to shut down its remaining nuclear power plants. The Christian Democrats now want to keep German nuclear facilities open longer in exchange for a lower speed limit to 100 kilometers per hour. The green coalition partner does not want the first, but the second does. The Christian Democrats are hesitant to reduce the speed. Implementing both measures would be an ideal compromise that would hurt both sides and help curb the German energy crisis.
7. Can Europe actually force countries to save 15%?
Normally not, but if it turns out in the autumn that the target will not be met (and that seems to be the case for many countries), a rarely used article in the European Treaty for ‘serious difficulties’ in energy security could be taken out of the stable. Ultimately, the Member States and the European Parliament must approve the law.
8. If on Thursday it turns out that Russia no longer opens the tap to Germany, can the gas price flip again?
Nobody really knows, but according to experts, the chance is not very high. The worst-case scenario already seems to have been factored into the price, several analysts say. A short, much higher peak is possible and the price may still creep towards 200 euros per megawatt hour (today around 160), but a long-term doubling to say 300 euros does not seem obvious. Nevertheless, the gas price is now almost 1000 percent higher than two years ago. And, it’s almost unthinkable with Tuesday’s record temperatures, if Europe has to deal with a harsh winter, everything could change.