The double summit in Granada, that of the EU countries and that of the European Political Community, recently created and which brings together 40 states (Great Britain, Switzerland and Eastern countries that are not in the EU) has been relevant. For Spain because, not only because of the current presidency, it has been seen that our country – after Brexit and Meloni’s arrival to power in Italy – has greater weight in Brussels. For Europe, not so much because of the achievements achieved – rather scarce – but because the great challenges it must face have been discussed.
The first is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Three years ago, no one thought that a war of this magnitude – of unknown duration and great complexity – could be a dramatic reality. It is evident that nothing is the same anymore, that the Russian threat is there, that Aid to Ukraine will require a great political and economic effort and that the EU may have to take an even greater role if Biden’s America falters (the American Congress is increasingly reluctant to help) or if, unfortunately, we find ourselves facing Trump’s America. The budget increase for military aid to Ukraine will not be the least problem. Without forget the possible “war fatigue” already evident in some countries as shown by the recent victory of the pro-Russian Fico in the Slovak elections.
The second is that the stabilization of Ukraine – not an easy goal – will force an accelerated enlargement of the EU. And welcoming Ukraine may force us to do the same with other Eastern countries that should not be discriminated against. An EU of 35 states in 2030 compared to the current one of 27? And this second expansion to the East will pose big problems, not only of financing, but also of democratic coherence. They do so by predicting the political practices that we see today in Poland and Hungary.
The third is that any relevant expansion is, in principle, a great challenge to political and social cohesion, which requires not only a power that tends towards something more supranationality but a greater complicity of the electorates and public opinions. A larger Europe with weaker common institutions is a great risk. It has already been seen with the first enlargement to the East and now it cannot be repeated because global geopolitics – autonomy before China and America, which we do not know how it will evolve – and the changes of all kinds that the fight against climate change will entail, demand more common policies. Europe may have to choose between extension and coherence.
The fourth challenge focuses on internal leadership problems in the current EU. The Franco-German axis (de Gaulle-Adenauer, Giscard-Helmut Schmidt, Kohl-Mitterrand, Merkel-Sarkozy) has been, together with Brussels, an indisputable driving force of progress since former Common Market from 1958 to the single currency and the current EU. But Today the Franco-German axis works worse. Because Macron and Scholtz are less in tune, because the French nuclear issue collides with the German rejection… and because in France (the social unrest has been serious) and Germany (a tripartite governs), Internal tensions do not help the agreement between the two governments.
And some serious and growing challenges, such as immigration -both economic necessity and social problem- almost irremediably pit some countries against each other.
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The task of making Europe something similar to a State that can have its own voice in the world will not be easy. And we will see which parliament emerges from the European elections in May 2024. But it is the only solution if Europe does not want to be subordinated to other powers because, in addition, There are no guarantees that the past American guardianship can last forever. Or even positive.
In this Europe, Spain should aspire to a more relevant role, but the internal division (the PP going to Brussels to protest against the PSOE policy) is a hindrance. Permanent? It seems so, although a Rajoy minister (of the first rank) told me last week that the PP and the PSOE were wrong. The smart thing – she said – would have been to agree on the presidency of Feijóo in Madrid and that of Pedro Sánchez, with the support of the EPP, in the Brussels Commission. It seems like a fantasy, but could it have been tried? And would it have been convenient?