By postponing their decision, EU countries hope to avoid a head-on clash with Viktor Orbán’s Hungarian government. On Tuesday morning, European finance ministers decided during a tense meeting session not yet to agree to a proposal from the European Commission to freeze EU funds for Hungary. Officially to have more time to study the facts, but behind the scenes fears of Orbán’s revenge are growing.
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Last week, the European Commission proposed in a historic decision to freeze 7.5 billion euros in EU funds for Hungary. According to Brussels, Hungary has not taken sufficient measures to prevent fraud and corruption with EU funds. With this opinion, the Commission is using a new ‘rule of law test’ for the first time, which makes it possible to set rule of law conditions for the payment of EU subsidies.
To ratify that decision, a large majority of EU countries must agree to it before 19 December. But during a meeting on Tuesday morning, finance ministers shrank from that. Some Eastern European member states, including Poland and Slovakia, for example, are not at all inclined to freeze Hungarian funds. However, Member States such as Germany, France and Italy also want the Commission to take another good look at whether Hungary has recently taken new measures to sufficiently combat corruption and fraud.
Hungarian vetoes
In reality, the fear of Hungarian vetoes plays a decisive role. During the meeting on Tuesday, two decisions that the EU has been hesitating for a long time had to be postponed for the umpteenth time, after Hungary again refused to agree to them. The first is a plan to borrow 18 billion euros to provide financial support to Ukraine, the second is a new minimum tax for multinationals. Both decisions require unanimity.
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For example, the ‘Hungarian question’ has a firm grip on the EU, in the run-up to a climax later this month. All the more so because EU ministers also have to decide whether to approve the plan that Budapest has drawn up to claim money from the corona recovery fund. Last week, the Commission recommended that this should indeed be done. But the approval is now also used by EU countries as leverage against Hungarian vetoes. After all, if the EU countries do not take a decision before December 31, 70 percent of the 5.8 billion euros to which Hungary is entitled will lapse.
The question is whether the postponement, which EU ministers decided on Tuesday morning, will make the situation easier. Germany and France in particular hope that the European Commission will soon come up with a new judgment, taking into account developments in Hungary since the deadline of 19 November. That could then lead to the financial sanction being eased, and with it the wrath of Orbán. But responsible European Commissioner Johannes Hahn (Budget) already informed the European Parliament on Monday that he does not feel that way: the verdict will stand.
For example, it remains uncertain how the case will turn out, as the deadline of December 19 approaches. At the beginning of next week, finance ministers will return to Brussels for an extra meeting. But there is a good chance that this attempt to make a decision will also fail, and the subject will end up on the board of the European heads of government, who will meet in Brussels next Thursday.