Friday marked one year after the invasion of Ukraine and it was found that Putin has failed so much in his military objective -dominance of the country- as in neutralizing Europe with economic suffocation. But Putin, who doesn’t want his rule over Russia to collapse like a house of cards, will raise the bet. And Biden and Europe also have no choice but to respond with more military aid to kyiv. Josep Borrell has said it: if Putin eats Ukraine, all of Europe will be less secure. Starting by Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland itself, That is why they are the most unconditional of Zelenski.
And the UN General Assembly approved Thursday, with 141 votes in favor and only 7 against, another resolution in defense of Ukraine. There were 30 abstentions and, against the most feared, China did not go from abstaining a year ago to voting against. Putin is very isolated, but the sanctions have not managed to break him either. The war continues and, as for now there is no winner, we are going to an escalation of unknown end.
An example is the trip to kyiv by Giorgia Meloni, on Wednesday, and by Pedro Sánchez, on Thursday. Both promised more Leopard tanks and they wanted to reaffirm their commitment. Meloni, because his allies Berlusconi and Salvini have been great friends of Putin and Meloni’s Italy wants to be on the European board. Sánchez, for very similar reasons. His foreign policy has as a priority -unlike Zapatero’s- the European Union and good relationship with the United States. Podemos’ criticism of military aid to Zelenski had to be buried. As Biden has said, perhaps Russia aspired to “finnishize & rdquor; (neutralize) Europe, but it has managed to “NATOize” it & rdquor ;.
And Sánchez also sent a message. Podemos has stood up to him in the laws of sexual freedom and in the trans law, but he has to accept and swallow his European policy. Every day more key in domestic and economic policy. It is significant that on Thursday the PSOE voted against the motion of ERC, Bildu and Podemos to pass the cost of dismissal from 33 to 45 days. Sánchez knows that – tax war aside – he cannot break the labor reform pact with the CEOE, in which it was agreed not to back down within 33 days. Can Sánchez continue for a long time with a government divided and in permanent conflict that every day that passes undermines his authority more?
Let’s continue in Ukraine. Putin’s second failure is that it has not suffocated Europe with the cessation of gas sales. The price of gas is down 85% from the terrible $300/Mwh in August, inflation has receded, European growth was 3.5% in 2022 and it looks like even though the economy will slow down, there will be no recession in 2023 either. The solvent PMI survey, which takes the pulse of the European economy, once again exceeded the 50 index -the border between growth and recession- in January and February. And sentiment polls and consumer confidence, European and Spanish tend to rise at the beginning of the year. In large part thanks to government aid to protect companies and families.
But the fear of the crisis is still there. The European Central Bank and the American Federal Reserve they believe that inflation is still not under control. In Spain, for example, it has fallen to 5.9%, but the core -which is what can fuel the inflationary spiral- is 7.5%. And the ECB believes that government aid and subsidies they may be excessive and hinder the decline in inflation. With an average inflation of 8.5% in the euro zone, the ECB, which has already raised interest rates by three points in recent months, will raise them again in March. And in the US they have risen even more.
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That’s why good economic data -European unemployment is at a minimum of 6.5%, and the American, at 3.5%- are alarming the stock markets that have been rising so far this year. not going to be that the good data make the ECB scare, raise interest rates even more, make credit more expensive for families and companies… and spoil the party.
Right now (knock on wood), the great economic danger is no longer only Ukraine, Rather, inflation, whose cause is not only war and gas, does not show a clear downward trend.