The few tenths that have been missing Recep Tayyip Erdogan to achieve re-election in the first round of the elections held on Sunday in Turkey, together with the renewed absolute majority of the Justice and Development Party, greatly complicate the possibility that the opposition candidate Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, achieved victory in the second round, on the 28th. Contrary to what was predicted by the polls and in view of the problems that the country must face -inflation, the aftermath of the earthquake, cases of corruption in the president’s entourage-, Erdogan has shown a capacity for resistance to all tests. He has favored Conservative voter mobilizationalarmed by the secular program of the Social Democrat Kiliçdaroglu and convinced by the campaign to discredit the textbook to identify it with terrorism.
The outcome of the first round is thus a bad news for those who see in Erdogan’s drift a permanent erosion of democratic customs, an unstoppable mutation in just one of the aspects of the republic founded a century ago, secular but also radically hostile to the various cultural identities within it. The result is the verification of the roots of Islamism and tradition in large sectors of the population, oblivious to the promise of renewal supported by the elites of Istanbul and Ankara; away from environments where tourism is an omnipresent phenomenon and from the latest generation economic sectors, which look at Europe and consider the growing link with Russia and the nostalgic nationalism that looks to Central Asia.
To this favorable atmosphere for the president, more propitious and deeper than expected, must be added the means that Erdogan will have at his disposal for the next two weeks to establish wills. If the campaign of the first round and the scrutiny on Sunday night abounded in incidents, it is to be expected that in the next two weeks all the springs of the Administration will be activated and put at their service. To which will be added, except for great surprise, the contribution of the voters of the far-right Sinan Ogan, who achieved around 5% of the ballots.
For those who have their hopes pinned on Kiliçdaroglu for Turkey to once again be a reliable NATO partner, a useful bridge between Europe and Asia, a well-founded candidate for long-term EU membership, Erdogan’s re-election prospect fills the future with unknowns. Because it is a fact that Turkey has played a fundamental role in restoring the export of grains from Ukraine with guarantees, it is becoming more influential every day in the development of events in the Middle East and for the moment it abides by the application of the more than questionable agreement for the containment of migratory flows signed with the Twenty-seven. Although in any election it is possible that surprises will appear, Erdogan has been too close to an absolute majority not to wait for it to materialize on the night of the 28th. After the participation in the first round, it is difficult to imagine a greater mobilization in the second and only in the direction of the opposition candidate. On the other hand, the prognosis of some analysts seems more feasible, who fear that the conversion of the president into a elected sultan, with all power in his handsas is the case now thanks to the reform of the Constitution.