The municipal elections of May 28 also caused a political upheaval in Catalonia. As already happened in the 2021 regional elections, the PSC was the force with the most votes, but this time ERC was relegated to third position as it was also surpassed by Junts. The independence movement registered its worst result in votes since 2016 and abstention was primed in the most sovereign strongholds and punished the Republicans above all. One might think that, with less than two months apart, the generals of the July 23th They will reproduce this same dynamic.
The pre-election poll Cabinet of Social Studies and Public Opinion (GESOP) for Prensa Ibérica gives some clues in this regard. Indeed, the upward trend for Junts and the downward trend for ERC would be repeated and both forces would tie at 8-9 seats in Congress. The Republicans, who will again present Gabriel Ruffian As an electoral poster, they now have 13 deputies and the post-convergents, whose candidate will in all probability be Miriam NoguerasToday they have 8 parliamentarians. Regarding the previous poll, from last March, Esquerra has dropped two seats and JxCat has risen one.
The two ex-partners of the Government are located in the 1.9% of the votes, which means that in the last three months ERC has lost six tenths and Junts has won one tenth. The poll does not estimate the seats that the PSCbut it could be deduced that it would be the winner of the elections in Catalonia because it is the party that leads the direct intention to vote (the vote without ‘kitchen’) in this community, with a 25.1%, well ahead of the 9.3% of JxCat and the 8.7% of Esquerra. It should be remembered that the general elections are traditionally the most refractory elections for sovereignty.
What the survey does make clear is the CKD erosion, who has governed in a minority and alone since September after the departure of Junts from the Government. Republicans consign the lower vote fidelity Across all parties: Only one in three 2019 voters (36.5%) would re-choose the Ruffian ballot. But four out of 10 voters would change their vote: 16.9% would now vote for PSC13.5% would do it for Add and 11.7% would support together. 17.4% of ERC voters are undecided today. These leaks show that the party loses more support due to the moderate flank that for the independentista.
In jxcat, instead, the ranks are tighter. Six out of 10 voters in 2019 would repeat their support and the party absorbs many more voters than CKD (11.7%) of those that the Republicans snatch from him (4.1%). The post-convergents also have leaks, but milder: 8.9% of their voters would migrate to Add5.8% would vote for PP and 4.9%, to other formations. The percentage of undecided de Junts (15.3%) is quite similar to that of Esquerra.
The innards of the survey confirm the good perception that, in general terms, the ERC voters of the leaders of the Spanish left. They pass with a 6.2 to Yolanda Diaz and with a 6 to Pedro Sanchez, although they prefer the leader of the PSOE (44.8%) more than the leader of Sumar (36.2%) as president. On the other hand the Juntas electorate he fails both, Sánchez with a 4.5 and Díaz with a 3.8, although he leans towards the socialist leader as his favorite to continue at Moncloa.
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The government management of PSOE and Unidas Podemos divides the Republican electorate: 44% approve it and another 44% do not consider it good or bad. On the contrary, 57.5% of post-convergent voters suspend the Executive, although two out of 10 approve it (22.2%). What the majority of supporters of ERC (88%) and Junts (70.7%) do agree on is that they conclude that a PP government would do worse.
Regarding the future governability of Spain, once again there is a certain contrast between the opinions of each electorate. 71% of ERC voters prefer a coalition government still solo executive, a percentage that drops to 60% in the case of Junts. Voters of both parties would opt for a pact between PSOE, Sumar and Podemos, although support goes from 65% of JxCat voters to 81.6% of Esquerra voters. It is striking that two out of 10 supporters of Junts (19.5%) bet on a PP-PSOE grand coalition.
Data sheet
–Responsible company:GESOP.
–research technique: Telephone interviews.
–Scope of study: Spain.
–Population: Adults with the right to vote.
–Sample: 1,003 interviews.
–Sampling type: Proportional by autonomous communities and size of municipality. Selection of the person to interview according to cross quotas of sex and age.
–Error range: +/- 3.10% for a confidence level of 95% and p=q=0.5.
–Field work: From May 30 to June 1, 2023.