Nuances matter, also in economics. And the presentation of the data can differ substantially depending on where the focus is placed. Yesterday the employment and Social Security affiliation data for June came out. A headline might have been beaten a record number of active workers, 20.86 million contributors. Or what unemployment has fallen to 2.68 million unemployed, the lowest number in the last 15 years.
Good data that, however, loses shine when it is pointed out that job creation is cooling off: the 54,541 new jobs in June are the lowest figure since 2015, when it should be a month of high occupancy, because service contracts are signed to cover the high tourist season. Whether or not we are facing a consolidated slowdown trend will be confirmed in the second half of the year, which is when the job market finds it harder to pick up. At the end of the first half of 2023, what can be said is that the number of affiliates is extraordinary: Never before has there been a net increase of 448,065 employed persons in the first half of the year.
Talking about a change of cycle in the workplace is hasty (although not ruled out) at this point. Yes, we can, on the other hand, look at the current photograph more closely and value it in its context. For example, with regard to the quality of employment, one of the clearest indicators of which is temporary employment. In June, four out of 10 contracts signed were permanentwhen before the labor reform they represented one in 10. It is a great advance against precariousness, although it is obligatory here to mention discontinuous permanent workers, workers who fall within this same statistic but have less real stability than an indefinite a full time.
In comparison with Europe, Spain can’t get much chest either: according to the latest data from Eurostat, the Spanish unemployment rate was the highest in the European Union, reaching 12.7% in May, double the average for the euro zone (6.5%).
dodge the recession
In summary, employment continues to be created, but less, and unemployment is reduced, but it is still high. But the Spanish economy has managed to dodge the recession (in fact, GDP is growing), overcoming the pothole of the pandemic and, for now, also that of the war in Ukraine. And salary redistribution (the ratio between those with the most income and those with the least) has improved in recent years, according to a study by CaixaBank, which points to the improvement in the labor market as the main reason. It is also significant that the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez-Feijóorecently confirmed that “will respect” the labor reformagreed between unions and employers, against which his own party voted.
The economy has entered the electoral debate. The data, usually without nuances, will be used by the candidates. Between the “Spain goes like a motorcycle” by Pedro Sánchez, and the last straw of “spoiled, without brakes”, by Feijóo, the grays are lost. But after 23J, inflation will remain the biggest concern and policies that facilitate business dynamism and reduce unemployment will continue to be necessary so as not to lose the ground gained.