The re-election of Emmanuel Macron as president of France has banished the ghost of a tricol Brexitor what would have been lethal for Europe and that could have placed the country on the brink of a social confrontation with unprecedented consequences. Hence his victory was more celebrated outside of France than within the country itself. From Joe Biden until Ursula von der Leyden, and from Volodymyr Zelensky until Pedro Sanchez and most European leaders, has been a respite. However, no one is optimistic, starting with Macron himself, about his second term. The more than 13 million votes obtained by Marine Le Pen they constitute a blow to the French political tradition and reveal an unusual capacity of an unapologetic extreme right to express the discontent of broad sectors of French society, including a part of those who until now have demonstrated from the left.
It is these circumstances of social and political breakdown, The legislative elections scheduled for June 12 and 19 are of particular importance. In fact, both Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Macron’s opponents from the right and the left, started the campaign on the same election night. LePen, to order one rematch which seems difficult after the result harvested, as valuable as it is frustrating, as it constitutes the third consecutive defeat of a Le Pen (counting that of Marine’s father, in 2002). melenchon, to introduce himself as candidate for prime minister if his formation obtains enough seats in parliament, an objective that is not easy either taking into account the radicalization of his positions and the suspicions that he raises outside his own space. Even so, it is not entirely impossible, considering the fondness of the French for what they call cohabitation: the coexistence of a right-wing (or left-wing) president with a left-wing (or right-wing) prime minister. The last case, when Jacques Chirac presided over the country, at the end of the nineties, living with a socialist head of government (Lionel Jospin).
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As he himself acknowledged, Macron has won with many borrowed votes. Consequently, it does not seem in a position to obtain a result in the legislative elections that would allow it to appoint a prime minister without agreeing with other formations. Whenever this has happened, France has resorted to cohabitation, with not necessarily a bad result. Francois Mitterrand had as prime minister Chirac and then to Edouard Balladur. Is it possible, now, this cohabitation, to overcome, or at least make up, the fracture that the country suffers?
Impossible n’est pas français (nothing is impossible for the French) it was said, in times of Napoleon, but the virtual disappearance of the traditional parties (classical right and socialists) does not make the task any easier. Cohabiting with Le Pen seems impossible, even for the French. And it is not certain that doing it with Mélenchon would give the country the stability it needs. However, without some kind of agreement, Macron’s presidency could peer into an abyss that would make the yellow vest conflict child’s play.