One conclusion already seems inevitable for the parliamentary committee of inquiry into natural gas extraction in Groningen, which started again this week: The Hague has handled the interests of tens of thousands of victims of Groningen with extreme care. Something needs to be rectified quickly and rigorously here. That’s a good thing, because the action that is needed will simultaneously frustrate Putin’s blackmail attempts and improve the climate. The Hague must now show leadership and open the Groningen gas tap as far as possible before it is too cold and too late.
‘Relentless’, is how Jan de Jong, who was the top man of the State Supervision of Mines until 2014, called the decision of the NAM, supported by the Ministry of Economic Affairs, to increase the extraction of natural gas by 13 percent to 53 in 2013. 9 billion cubic meters (cubic meter). The regulator had just established that there is a linear relationship between production speed and the probability of earthquakes. He had therefore advised to reduce gas extraction ‘as quickly as possible and as much as possible and realistic’. The Hague did not listen.
About the authors
Stef Kranendijk is former CEO of Desso and ex-chairman of De Groene Zaak. Jeroen Smith is a writer of The prey and The Great Battle.
Relentless, so it is understandable that the resistance in Groningen to opening the gas tap is enormous. Yet that is exactly what must be done. The war in Ukraine has been going on for six months and every day it threatens to get closer. Putin has his way, he plays with our addiction to his gas. In the middle of the summer, he closes the Nordstream gas pipeline, then opens it 40 percent, then only 20 percent open, and now it closes again.
Pepper time
He hardly has to worry about the income needed to finance his war in Ukraine. After all, gas prices are going through the roof. That very expensive gas is already causing great instability (huge cost increases, inflation, etcetera), while the winter has yet to come.
A quick calculation makes it clear that it is precisely the Netherlands that can partly beat this weapon out of Putin’s hands. Through that Nordstream gas pipeline According to Gazprom, a maximum of 167 million cubic meters per day flow. The announcement that it will be able to open again (for a while?) for 20 percent soon, means a delivery of 33 million cubic meters per day. On an annual basis, that is about 10 billion cubic meters net. The Nordstream briefly opened for 40 percent: about 20 billion cubic meters per year.
According to Theodor Kockelkoren, the current Inspector General of Mines, at least 12 billion cubic meters of Groningen gas can be extracted safely (‘code green’). Almost 8 billion cubic meters more than has been agreed for this year. He then stated explicitly: we are on the safe side. We can imagine that the dramatic current events will soon necessitate a less conservative estimate. How great are the risks if we go back to the level of a few years back: 20 to 25 billion cubic meters?
Climate Minister Jetten
If that were successful, the ’40 percent’ supply by the Nordstream pipeline, which climate minister Rob Jetten now assumes, will no longer be necessary. Jetten believes that the Netherlands can survive the winter in combination with 15 percent energy savings and extra LNG (liquefied gas). It is said in government circles that if things go wrong this winter, the Groningen tap will certainly be turned on further. But then it is too late, most of the damage has been done.
Moreover, this is not only about the Netherlands, but also about the European Union and, in particular, Germany, which is highly dependent on Russian gas. Announcing now that a substantial (and possibly even growing) part of Groningen’s gas is available after all, will immediately have a positive, stabilizing and price-lowering impact.
By opening the Groningen tap to the maximum, Putin’s divide and rule tactics are frustrated to the maximum. In combination with the existing sanctions and the stop on the export of Russian coal (as of last August) and oil (as of December), a stop on Russian gas exports via Nordstream to the EU and the associated sharp decline in energy revenues make it very difficult for Putin, especially to continue his costly war.
Methane Leakage
If the warlike Putin is life-threatening in the short term, global warming is in the longer term. When the Groningen gas tap opens, part of the considerable CO2 emitting coal-fired power stations that are now running at full capacity in Germany and the Netherlands will be shut down. In addition, this will reduce the enormous methane leakage that occurs with the extraction and transport of Russian gas. In return for our gas supply, we could ask Germany to keep their nuclear power stations open for the time being and to come up with a plan as soon as possible to close the lignite power stations.
Together with the current correct European policy to stimulate solar and wind energy and hydrogen enormously, the need for Groningen gas will decrease in the coming years, while the EU has said goodbye to Russian gas that leaks methane.
Of course there is great resistance in Groningen to the use of more Groningen gas. They have been fighting for a listening ear for years. Less than 10 percent of the 27 thousand houses that are classified as ‘unsafe’ have actually been tackled. Its approximately 50,000 fearful residents have become entangled in endless bureaucratic procedures. They can’t go anywhere. Journalist Ineke Noordhoff, author of the book Degenerate country, the struggle of a Groninger against the gas regents rightly states: now give these people the control to repair and strengthen their own home. Give them a ‘free recovery operation’ and finance it generously.
10 billion
At sometime! Money cannot be the problem: based on those 12 billion cubic meters, the extra revenue from ‘their’ gas will quickly amount to 10 billion euros per year. Enough to immediately pay 100 percent all claims for damaged and reinforced houses and to give a guarantee that the future damage will also be immediately compensated.
For 4 tons you can build a beautiful house, for 10 billion euros you can build 27,000 new houses. The knowledge that they can renovate their houses and at the same time frustrate the warlike Putin, and do the climate a favor, should do many Groningen residents good.
They do not have to fear losing votes in The Hague. Immediately after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, 61 percent of Groningen residents already stated that they were in favor of opening the gas tap to the aforementioned 12 billion cubic meters per year. With the compensation scheme proposed above, which can be paid out quickly, that agreement will only increase.
What is the government still waiting for? With Groningen, the Netherlands holds the key to not only serve the national interest, but also the European and world interest.