First of all, here are the numbers of the crisis towards which (perhaps) we are going. The economists of Nomisma Energy coordinated by Davide Tabarelli on 23 December updated the approximate and provisional forecast of the possible increase in the cost of light And gas according to the new market data and the mechanism that uses the Arera energy authority to update tariffs on 1 January. Obviously Nomisma Energia was unable to refine the figures with the data for the next few days or with the new government bills-saving decisions.
The numbers of the rise in prices
But here are the numbers: electricity + 52%, gas + 61%. A bludgeon for families and businesses. And also for many energy companies, some of which are highly exposed. «The solutions? It is not easy, also because the reason for the increase is not in the hands of Italy or even of Europe: the profits go to foreign producers of natural gas “, observes Agostino King Rebaudengo, president of Elettricità Futura, the confindustrial association of electricity companies. “As a quick measure, the Government had rightly identified the shift in general taxation of a part of the items” system charges “which in normal conditions represent about 20% of the electricity bill”.
The solutions to be adopted
In the medium term, according to Re Rebaudengo, the answer is to unblock renewable energy sources. “If we were already in the situation of power plants expected in 2030, with more sun and more wind, the Italian energy bill would cost 30 billion less. We make less than a thousand megawattt a year and the projects are largely blocked: we have to build solar and wind plants for 8 thousand megawatts a year. And then biomethane, dozens of plant projects held in check by a draft decree that drives out investors: we could go from 1 to 10 billion cubic meters of non-fossil gas ».
The taxation of profits
According to the Observatory of Anie Renewables, just 809 megawatts were built in the first 9 months of 2021. There are those who, following the (unsuccessful) example of Spain, want to tax the profits of renewable sources, which produce electricity at very low costs and sell it at full price. “No profits!” King Rebaudengo exclaims. “A large part of green energy is paid for at a fixed and low price through auctions, with all-inclusive tariffs, with green certificates and above all it is sold at a fixed price with forward contracts based on transfer prices established well in advance of the delivery, for the benefit of those who stipulated them ».
The crisis could affect everyone
Methane went up by 55% in one week. There are those who predict imminent blackouts or rationing and the energy security index Ispred of Enea notes that “in view of the winter, the indicator relating to the system’s adequacy margins requires particular attention”. Meanwhile, the thrust of the most meteopathic renewables leads to the need for 48 new methane plants to complement their production instability.
Alberto writes Clô in the Energy Magazine: “Faced with this increasingly dramatic scenario, the absolute inertia of the European authorities is surprising” and on 23 December theAssomet (non-ferrous metals) confirmed the alert: “Businesses stop.”