Most automakers are moving too slowly towards electrification to meet climate targetsaccording to a new report from InfluenceMap, which warns that they are simultaneously pushing to extend the life of the internal combustion engine.
All twelve manufacturers analyzed for the research have publicly supported the Paris Agreement. Nevertheless, only one, Tesla, commits to a policy consistent with the goals of the agreement, and only two, Tesla and Mercedes-Benz, foresee a transition to electric vehicles fast enough enough to comply with the reduction of 1.5 degrees.
To meet the reduction of 1.5 degrees by 2030, it is necessary that 57.5% of global car sales correspond to ‘zero emission’ vehicles and therefore, that the figure in 2029 rise to 52%. However, the combined global production of battery electric vehicles from all manufacturers is projected to only reach 32% in 2029.
Only two automakers, Tesla (100%) and Mercedes-Benz Group (56%), plan to exceed the 2029 average needed to reach the zero emissions goal. They are followed by BMW (45%), Volkswagen (43%), Stellantis (40%), Renault (31%), and Hyundai (27%), reports Europa Press.
Japanese brands, the least committed
According to IHS Markit data, the three automakers with the lowest level of ‘zero emission’ vehicle production plans by 2029 are based in Japan: Toyota (14%), Honda (18%) and Nissan (22%).
Despite this, there are strong regional differences within the different car manufacturers. For example, 49% of the Toyota fleet produced in the EU will be battery electric vehicles in 2029, while in the United States it will only reach 4%.
On the other hand, the two US-based automakers, Ford (36%) and General Motors (28%), will also not exceed the average for their global production of battery electric vehicles. However, Ford’s electric output in the EU is projected to be 65% by 2029.
On the other hand, the study reveals that there is a strong correlation between the government’s policy to eliminate internal combustion engine vehicles and the local production of battery electric cars.
In the European Union, which has some of the most ambitious policies to decarbonise the transport sector, data from IHS Markit shows that 59% of local production is forecast to be battery electric vehicles by 2029.
The results of the United States show the opposite scenario to the European Union. Only Tesla (100%) and Volkswagen (57%) are projected to produce enough battery electric vehicles in the United States to meet the Energy Agency’s goal.
USA: 65% of cars will still be thermal in 2029
Although a “limited” shift from internal combustion engine to electric vehicles is taking place, 65% of light vehicles produced in the United States will still be powered by combustion engines in 2029.
Likewise, the Japanese vehicle fleet will continue to be dominated by internal combustion engine vehicles until 2029 (76%), and only 14% of all vehicles produced in 2029 will be electric.
This reflects the dominance of hybrid combustion engine vehicles in the business strategies of Japanese automakers, which increases the risk that Honda, Nissan and Toyota will fall behind their global competitors for battery electric vehicles.
On the other hand, the research also shows that the major car manufacturers they are planning to offload the production of internal combustion engine vehicles in Africa, India and South America.
In stark contrast to Europe, the sector is projected to produce just 3% of battery electric vehicles in South America by 2029, 8% in Africa and 9% in India of all vehicles produced. Even automakers with high European electric ambitions, such as Volkswagen, will produce very few such models in these emerging markets.
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