In Madrid and Barcelona, the elections have a different flavor than the rest of the municipalities. They have a certain taste for ‘midterms’, midterm elections that give clues to what may happen in the Spanish and Catalan political future. It matters who takes the baton, who wins, but also what is the strength of each block, and how each game ends. Whoever comes out as mayor in Barcelona, what matters is the relative strength of the ERC with respect to Junts, and of the PSC with respect to the Comuns. In Madrid, whether or not the PP governs, the power that Vox demonstrates matters, and whether Más Madrid continues to be ahead of the PSOE. Figures like Yolanda Díaz, Pedro Sánchez, Aragonès, Borràs, Feijóo, or Abascal, despite not participating in the elections, are risking what may happen in 2024.
For weeks now, from Predilect we have been making daily predictions about what the resulting municipal government will be in all the capitals of Catalonia, as well as the most populated cities in the community and Madrid. In future installments we will diversify our gaze, but in this first analysis we direct our attention to the two hot spots for May 28: Barcelona and Madrid.
Who will govern Barcelona?
Barcelona is is a key polling place not only because of its capital status, which implies resource management comparable to that of some autonomous communities, but also because of the level of electoral competition we attend. Up to three forces are played for the minimum the first position in votes and councilors. The protagonists are known. The current mayor Ada Colau, who is fighting for a second re-election, is joined by two strong competitors, Jaume Collboni from the PSC and Xavier Trias from Junts. Do all three candidates have the same probability of wielding the baton? Not really: by Predilect’s numbers, Barcelona en Comú and PSC have significantly better odds of winning over Junts. All this despite the fact that the Trias candidacy is the one that has grown the most in recent months according to surveys and some of these place it in first position. This phenomenon is due to coalitional potential of each force. The PSC and, above all, BeC have a greater capacity to forge alliances than Junts.
Despite the disagreements, everything seems to indicate that both PSC and BeC are forced to understand each other after the elections. In the event that the Socialists fall from the first position, the cost of causing a change of color in the government by launching Trias is higher than supporting the re-election of Colau. In the case of the commons, support for Trias is electorally implantable. The third major player in this equation is ERC. The cost of ousting BeC in favor of a right wing government is high. Furthermore, the relative strength of the ERC is insufficient to sustain a Trias government. If they are tempted to support the Junts candidate, the support of other forces such as the PP would be needed, a scenario that cannot be ruled out due to mutual vetoes.
This mosaic made up of more vetoes than supporters explains the Barcelona government agreement most probable according to Predilect: that of PSC, BeC and ERC (57%), which is well ahead of the next most likely agreement, the one that would integrate Junts, PSC and PP (20%). Can these numbers change during the election campaign?
A pattern that can be advanced is that attention to the first three forces is reinforced. In this type of highly competitive election, there is usually a horse race weather, which drowns out the following matches of the peloton. A trend that is reinforced in the municipal ones where finishing first is more important than in regional or general ones. If a majority agreement is not reached, the candidate with the most councilors in favor occupies the mayoralty. This causes the strategic voters of the rest of the parties end up choosing their second option.
Therefore, it will not be surprising that the entry of the political formations closest to the 5% is in danger, as is the case of Vox, CUP and even the PP. If Trias takes off thanks to this effect and adds up with ERC, he can increase his chance to become mayor. Otherwise, it is worth paying close attention to who has the greatest potential to drag between now and the day of the elections, Collboni or Colau, because it will depend on who occupies the Barcelona city council in the following four years.
The first question has a pretty sure answer: yes. Ayuso has a 95% chance of repeating as president of the Community of Madrid. A percentage that has barely changed for a month and that is very unlikely to change. The other determining question is whether she will do it alone like she has until now or if she will govern in coalition with Vox. Predilect’s estimates are consistent with the data from the surveys that give the PP a very large majority. If you need Vox, it will be for the minimum, as it already happened in 2021 when the popular ones were 3 seats away from the absolute majority.
And as on that occasion, with such an advantage of support, everything indicates that Vox would have no choice but to give up its seats and let Ayuso govern. Predilect predicts a solo government of the PP with a percentage of 75% probability. The comfort of Ayuso’s candidacy contrasts with the stage to his left, with a disappeared Ciudadanos, a PSOE that presents a second sword and Más Madrid, whose candidate no longer has the vein of competing on her star issue, the public healthcareas was the case two years ago in the midst of a pandemic.
The situation of Jose Luis Martinez-Almeida it is slightly more unstable. From the 95% probability of Ayuso’s re-election, we drop in his case to 73%. First, because as everyone knows, the strength of the left in the capital is superior to that of the region. Secondly, neither Almeida has the mobilizing capacity of Ayuso in the field of the right, nor are the leftist candidacies so ineffective in the capital compared to their fellow regional cartels. Rita Masterfrom Más Madrid, does not report the same wear and tear as her partner shows Monica Garciaand the PSOE presents a former minister, maroto kings. Almeida’s margin is also still high, 47 points above the probability that Rita Maestre will return to Cibeles, the most viable alternative in Madrid. This has a fundamental reason: it is likely that a significant percentage of leftist votes will be lost.
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The slightly more likely scenario is that Podemos does not exceed the electoral barrier of 5% (37% probability according to Predilect) and neither will Ciudadanos. Between now and May 28, it is unlikely that these formations on the edge of the electoral barrier will improve their prospects. Many of the voters of Can and citizens they can get demotivated and stay at home or vote for another formation with the logic of the useful vote.
On this dance of votes between small and large formations will depend to a large extent how the seats are distributed of the Madrid town hall. The electoral campaign has begun and the parties that have the least to lose, but also those that border on the majority, will play all their cards.