The first round of Colombia’s presidential elections, Sunday, announces itself as the most unpredictable in years. The polls are leading left-wing senator and former mayor of Bogota Gustavo Petro, suggesting that the left is taking the lead for the first time in a country that has historically been led by conservatives. However, it is expected that a second round will be needed to determine who will succeed current President Iván Duque.
Who will be Petro’s opponent in that second round is still uncertain. That will probably be the right-wing candidate Federico Gutierrez, former mayor of Medellin. He gets 27 percent in the polls, but in the last straight line to the election, the independent candidate Rodolfo Hernandez comes out fierce.
About ten days before the elections, French-Colombian politician Ingrid Betancourt, who was held hostage by FARC guerrillas from 2002 to 2008, announced that she was withdrawing from the presidential campaign. In the polls, she didn’t even get a percent. At the announcement, she expressed her support for outsider Hernandez. “He is the only candidate who can end the system,” said Betancourt.
After Betancourt’s withdrawal, six candidates, all men, remain. Of them, Petro is the biggest contender to make it in the first round.
Petro lost to Duque . in second round in 2018
At the age of 17, Petro joined the M-19 guerrilla movement, which transformed into a political party after the movement’s demobilization. After obtaining his master’s degree in economics from a Colombian university, he continued his studies in Belgium, at the Université Catholique de Louvain.
After passages in the Senate and the House of Representatives, Petro became mayor of the capital Bogota in 2012. He remained that until 2015. In 2010 and 2018 he was also a candidate in the presidential elections — in 2018 he lost in the second round to Duque.
As leader of the left-wing Humane Colombia party, Petro leads the Pacto Histórico por Colombia coalition. In the campaign, he promised “change” and a government “for all Colombians” who “want to end the political hatred within society”.
Gutierriez wants to stop ‘the communists’
His main opponent Gutierriez, ‘Fico’ to his supporters, has long insisted on putting a stop to “the communists”. Their intent would be to “expropriate” and “get rid of the institutions,” Gutierrez said.
In recent days, the right-wing politician, who leads the Team for Colombia coalition, has adapted his message and called on his fellow citizens to “unite”. At the same time, he promises “to work for all Colombian families” and to fight against “insecurity”.
Threats and stories of unreliable ballots
The campaign was marked by threats made against Petro. The left-wing candidate delivers his speeches in public from behind a hedge of guards with shields. There were also threats against Gutierrez.
On top of those threats have been reported in recent days that cast doubt on the reliability of the polls. According to a diplomatic source, the reliability should not be doubted, but such stories do increase tensions in the run-up to Sunday.
Parliamentary elections were already held in March, where Petro’s coalition was able to make a clear gain.
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