How can it be that the PP candidate, also invested with the votes of Vox (and Cs) in 2019, is now on the verge of widely winning the Andalusian elections, where from 81 to 2019 the PSOE always ruled? Well, the territories do not belong to anyone and the voters vote according to their criteria and interests. Even Galicia had a socialist president. Y Pasqual Maragall Y Joseph Montilla they presided over Catalonia no matter how much it hurt those from the CDC who believed that the Generalitat was theirs and that today they have disappeared or suffered a gigantic mutation. Let’s finish, until the model patxi lopez took from Ibarretxe the ‘lendakaritza’.
Moreno Bonilla, strong man of the Andalusian PP by the finger of Soraya Saenz de Santamaria when in 2014 she was the almighty vice president, she is a politician who has sweated up many stairs. He was born in Barcelona as the son of poor immigrants and has spent his entire career in the PP. When Soraya anointed him he seemed almost like a submissive party official incapable of going around the Andalusia of Felipe González, Alfonso Guerra, Rafael Escuredo, Manuel Chaves… But he’s about to make it. And having survived an uncomfortable cohabitation with Paul Married, who beat Soraya on the right.
Why? Analyzing two very recent surveys, that of ‘El País’ and that of the CIS, unlikely to be influenced by the PP, the conclusion is clear. The Andalusians believe that he has governed reasonably well. According to ‘El País’, 42.1% believe that they have done very well (13.7%) or well, against the 21% who think the opposite. Doubling positive opinions to negative ones is not normal in these times of protest. And the grade given by Andalusians according to the CIS is 6.5 compared to the next candidate, the socialist John Swords, which although it has improved in the campaign, remains at 4.99. In the preferences as president, he stands out with 42.9% (CIS) and 38.4% (‘El País’) compared to 16% and 11.7% for Espadas.
Let’s conclude because the numbers sing. 72.4% of Andalusians believe that the PP will win the elections and that is what 38.9% want, compared to 21.1% who would prefer the PSOE to win. Moreno Bonilla will win because the Andalusians believe he has done well and the attacks on his management, or on his investiture thanks to Vox, have not penetrated the other time the granary of the socialist vote.
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Sure, he wear of the PSOE after so many years of government must also count. As it happened in Catalonia with Pujol. Does current Spanish politics have an influence? It will be a triumph of Moreno’s calm style, but there is no doubt that a inflation of 8.7%, which eats away at real wages, does not help the PSOE. Nor does the constant noise (often obscene) from the ruling coalition, nor the political sluggishness of the Executive after the departure of Carmen Calvo and Jose Luis Abalos. Without going any further, it was pathetic than the economic vice president, Nadia Calvino, could not come up with another excuse to justify the poor execution of regionalizable investment in Catalonia than to resort, at an event in Barcelona, to the pandemic. As if the coronavirus were a Catalan thing.
And it will also tell that the image of Nunez Feijoo It has little to do with that of Casado. But Moreno and Feijóo have a problem. His sweeping win in Andalusia will be somewhat lackluster if Moreno Bonilla gets pregnant by Macarena Olona. Why has the PP eaten Cs and fed Vox? Because of an excess of the policy of harassment and demolition since Sánchez won the motion of censure against Rajoy?