Can weathered the political earthquake on the left and resisted in the first electoral test on May 28. The latest polls show a party that maintains its territorial weight and that it aspires to maintain five regions where it already governs in coalition, with options to enter to govern in three more communities: extemadura, Cantabria and Asturias. Some expectations that, if fulfilled, would dye eight of the 17 autonomous communities purple.
The goal of Podemos is assert its institutional weight and demand coalitions in those places where their votes are necessary for governability. A strategy that they already started in 2019, where they managed to enter the governments of the Valencian Community, Balearics, Canary Islands, Aragon and Navarre, where there are purple councilors and vice presidents; In addition, their votes were essential to make President shell andreu in La Rioja, although the only representative of Podemos in the regional executive was later expelled from the party, leaving the purple without representation.
The first objective is to revalidate the autonomous governments of which they are a part. He technical tie between the blocks of left and right is a common denominator in all the territories where it now governs in coalition, with the exception of La Rioja, which most of the polls coincide in dyeing it blue, and of Navarra, where the reissue is taken for granted of the government of PSN, Geroa Bai and Podemos.
Mobilize from the Government
A handful of votes can tip the balance to one side or the other in the communities in contention, and it is precisely in these places where the purples want to play the role of key to the Government. They appeal to the useful vote and position themselves as only “guarantee & rdquor; to bring to the territories the policies promoted by the central government.
The exhibition of his achievements from the Council of Ministers is precisely one of his campaign axes. Members of the purple leadership consider that the initiatives of the coalition “mobilize” to their electorate and point directly to the Housing Law, a central issue in the campaign. They consider that the commitment to apply it in places like Madrid will is an electoral boost. The mobilization will be key and these last days will be decisive, according to another member of the leadership, who trusts in the good results of the electoral campaign.
“Campaigns are good for us”, This source stands out. A campaign where Podemos has advocated clash and confrontation to leave behind the controversy with the EH Bildu lists. Ione Belarra’s shirt in Congress with the face of Ayuso’s brother or the initiative to outlaw anti-squatter organizations are ways of gaining prominence and setting their own agenda.
Another element that has allowed Podemos to resist has been the alliance policy with IU. The party has reached more agreements than ever to go to the elections on a single ballot. A strategy that has allowed two things. The first, avoid the penalty of the electoral law and to guarantee that no votes are ‘thrown away’, so that all support translates into seats. The second, as explained by some voices in the party, that “the fact of going together encourages the electorate” and would mobilize when it comes to going to the polls.
a handful of votes
The equalization of the left and right blocks leads to a scenario where the role of Podemos acquires special relevance for the formation of some governments. The case of the Valencian Communitya key bastion of the left, where the polls give Podemos the 5% necessary to enter Las Corts, a barrier that until a few weeks ago it did not seem to be insured.
Despite his fall, from the 8 current deputies to the 5 -according to the average of the latest surveys-, his position will allow the Botanic pact to be revalidated and dispute the absolute majority to PP and Vox. Podemos has tried to give special prominence to the Valencian Community, where it gave the starting signal to the electoral campaign and to which both Irene Montero and Ione Belarra have attended this week.
The situation is similar in Balearics: although the PP would be the first force, the socialist Francina Armengol could form a progressive majority that would necessarily go through revaluate the coalition agreement with a Podemos that is going backwards -from the 6 current representatives to 4, always the average of polls-, but which continues to be essential for the formation of the Government. It would also have the support of parties such as Més or the minority Pi and Gent per Formentera (GxF).
In Canary Islandsthe polls suggest that the coalition with Podemos led by the PSOE of Angel Victor Torres, which would continue as the first force despite the growth of the popular. The slight setback of the purples -who would go from 4 seats to 3- would not prevent them from adding to the left, making the party essential.
In Aragon, the current Government of Javier Lambán integrates Podemos, PAR (Aragonese Party) and the Chunta; a formula that the socialist had to repeat to achieve a majority, integrating Aragón Existe into the equation, which bursts in with up to 4 representatives. Although the PP would unseat the PSOE as the first force, the polls place it three seats from the absolute majority, which opens the door to the continuity of the current executive. The coin will fall one way or the other based on a handful of votes. But one thing seems clear: Lambán’s options go through Podemos again.
three more governments
We can aspire to dye three more governments purple. In Estremadura, Guillermo Fernandez Vara would lose the absolute majority and it would need Podemos that, led by Michael’s Irene, will demand to enter the government in exchange for their support. The thirty socialist deputies predicted by the latest polls exceed the absolute majority (situated at 33) thanks to the four that the purple ones could obtain.
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In Cantabria, a notable rise of the PP is expected, whom all the polls place as the first force, and the PRC of Miguel Ángel Revilla could only add reissuing his coalition with the PSOE…and including Podemos. A tripartite unprecedented until now where Podemos could be key, which did not achieve parliamentary representation in 2019, and which the polls place at the limit of the electoral barrier of 5%. His entry or not could decide the color of the new government.
Asturias It is another of the places where Podemos has government options, although the investiture method, where you can only vote yes or abstain to favor governability, adds particularities. Adrián Barbón would only need Podemos or IU to govern if there was an alternative on the right (with the sum of PP and Vox) that outnumbered the Socialists. A circumstance that today is possible, according to the latest polls.