According to the final or provisional results, the BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB) is the largest party in eleven of the twelve provinces. Utrecht seems to be the exception, here GroenLinks gets the most votes in the standings, but the difference with number two, the BBB, is small. In Friesland and Drenthe there can be no doubt about the winner. BBB is the largest party in all municipalities in these provinces. In Flevoland, Urk is the only municipality where the largest is not the BBB, but the SGP. BBB is the second party here with 29% of the vote. In Zeeland it is striking that the PvdA/GroenLinks combination is the second party, ahead of the VVD and the SGP.
“Many parties can now be happy if they have four seats in the Provincial Council,” says political analyst Joost Smits of the Political Academy foundation. “College formation is almost impossible due to the fragmentation. It could be that provinces opt for an extra-parliamentary administration like in Limburg, with varying majorities. The fragmentation in the provinces started in the 1990s and has not stopped yet.”
Attendance
After counting 94 percent of the votes, the turnout in the Provincial Council elections is 57.7 percent. This is slightly higher than in 2019, when 56.1 percent of eligible voters cast a vote. The turnout is high in the BBB areas in the north and east of the Netherlands. “It seems that many non-voters have become BBB voters. The nitrogen debate has turned people who were not interested in politics into activists,” says Joost Smits.
Turnout is lowest in Hoorn, two-thirds of voters did not vote here. Turnout in Staphorst is traditionally high, with 84.7 percent of voters voting here.
First room
The provincial elections indirectly determine the composition of the Senate. A provisional forecast has been made on the basis of the election results. BBB is expected to win 16 seats and is the largest party. Forum for Democracy, the big winner in 2019, has two of the twelve seats left. The PvdA and Groenlinks together have 15 seats in the Senate.
BBB
There is no doubt about the winner of these provincial elections. A large majority of Dutch municipalities and provinces turn BBB green on the election map. Nearly one in five voters voted BBB. The national number two, the VVD, follows at a distance. In Tubbergen and Dinkelland, BBB obtained more than 50 percent of the vote. The party is smallest in the cities of Utrecht, Leiden and Haarlem.
“Be smart and include BBB and the voters in the coalition,” says Joost Smits. “BBB is big in the areas where people are disappointed with national politics. You can’t ignore these voters. The BoerBurgerBeweging must now show that the party has more to offer than just figurehead Caroline van der Plas. She has attracted voters with a calm and clear story, with an eye for the people concerned. It now remains to be seen whether the enthusiastic newcomers who come to the Provincial Council on behalf of BBB will persevere if it turns out that compromises have to be made.”
CDA
The CDA has almost halved in these elections. Nationally, 6.7 percent of voters voted CDA. Of the 85 municipalities where the CDA was still the largest in 2019, only one remains. In the municipality of Beek in Limburg, the CDA obtained 16.5 percent of the vote. Despite a loss of 9.1 percentage points compared to the 2019 elections, the CDA is just ahead of the BBB. Only in the municipalities of Goes, Borsele and Hulst in Zeeland and in Peel en Maas and Beek in Limburg did the CDA score 15 percent or higher. “There are indications that the formerly loyal CDA voter has now not shown up everywhere. Perhaps they would have wanted to vote for (former CDA politician, now independent Member of Parliament Pieter) Omtzigt,” says Joost Smits.
VVD
With 11 percent of the vote, the VVD is the second largest party in the Netherlands, just like four years ago. In 2019, the difference between the VVD and the largest party at the time, the Forum for Democracy, was 0.5 percentage point. In these elections, BBB is a lot bigger than the VVD; the difference is 8.7 percentage points. The VVD has lost, especially in Drenthe and Gelderland. In Limburg, slight growth for the VVD can be seen in a number of municipalities. The VVD is still the largest party in 40 municipalities: a halving compared to 2019. These are traditional VVD strongholds such as Laren, Blaricum and Wassenaar. The VVD also scores well in medium-sized cities in North Brabant.
PvdA/GroenLinks
Added together, PvdA and GroenLinks are the second party in the Netherlands, but they form separate factions in the provinces. GroenLinks is the third party nationwide, with 8.8 percent of all votes. The PvdA became the fourth party, with 8 percent of the vote. “The PvdA is participating again,” says Smits. Pvda leader “Attje Kuiken has conducted a good campaign. The cooperation between PvdA and GroenLinks does not always run smoothly. In terms of content, the PvdA can collaborate more easily with BBB than GroenLinks. It remains to be seen how this will work out in the provinces.”
Other parties
Coalition parties D66 and CU: losses compared to the previous provincial elections.
SGP: nationally, the SGP is one of the smaller parties, but the party has a loyal following and is the largest party in 14 municipalities. In the provisional prognosis, the SGP retains one seat in the Senate, but this may change when the remaining seats are distributed in May.
JA21: newcomer to the provinces JA21 gets more than 4 percent of the vote. The party can form a bridge between VVD and BBB, says Smits.