The pact hatched with the Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenkoso that the leader of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhinstopped his troops some 250 kilometers from Moscow reveals the weakness and vulnerability of Russian President Vladimir Putin. That a man like him, who has not hesitated to liquidate opponents accused of much less serious acts than those carried out by Prigozhin, has been forced to accept that the rebel mercenaries go unpunished and that his boss is free (for now) is a sign of impotence that Putin will not be able to shake off. In his surprisingly short speech on Monday night, Putin tried to show his acting as a gesture of clemency before those who have fought for their country, and of responsibility for having preferred to avoid “a bloodbath” despite having been able to repress the coup by force. Once again, he offered the mercenaries three possible options (to graduate, join the ranks of the Army or take refuge in Belarus), without mentioning his leader.
In a country like Russia with a long authoritarian tradition, where Putin has forged his power and social prestige with a mixture of ruthless authority at any hint of response and mediation between the economic and military elites, it is surprising that a leader like him has accepted a agreement that can be so unfavorable for his political future if, having accused Prigozhin of high treason, benevolence ends up being interpreted as weakness. Especially when it is not true, as he maintains, that not a drop of blood was spilled during the coup. The downing of a plane and several helicopters that tried, with little success, to stop Wagner’s armored column cost Russian troops at least 20 fatalities, including some officers.
To finish assessing the scope of the humiliation suffered by Putin, we will have to wait to know the details of this unusual political-military episode. And if his revenge comes even if it’s cold. We will have to wait for it to finish, because if the majority of the experts and foreign ministries agree on something, it is that we are still in the first ’round’ of the confrontation. What is certain is that an operation like this, which began with the mercenaries occupying Rostov, continued with a march on Moscow and ended on the basis of an obscure agreement that only adds uncertainty to what happened, will not remain as the naive protest with which that now Prigozhin intends to settle the issue.
In the forms, the conflict unleashed by the leader of the Wagner group moves between tragedy and farce, but it would be foolish to underestimate. That a group of mercenaries led by a histrionic character have roamed freely, for 48 hours, in a country that has about 6,000 nuclear warheads should be cause for concern throughout the world. Not only in the West. The silence maintained by the Chinese government is significant. As it is that the only other unequivocal support that Putin has received is that of Iran from the ayatollahs, Turkey from Erdogan and Venezuela from Maduro. The great powers must take note of what happened and must agree, over and above their divergences, on security mechanisms to deal with similar situations that could put the security of the entire planet at risk.